TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e3e…6b65

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst Champions League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.3
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$90.27
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.6
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$773Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$453.99
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.14
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$158.34
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.16
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+400%+$184
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$705.51
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.44
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$44.8
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$219.6
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$509.74
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$156.78
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+122.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.7
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.11
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$116.16
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.78
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+426.3%+$447.93
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+733.3%+$584.32
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.7
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$303.88
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+270.4%+$613.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+81.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$109.98
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.08
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.19
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$277.2
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$55.95
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$190.82
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+37%+$9.72
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+566.7%+$227.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+90.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$265.2
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+53.8%+$257.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$682.48
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+69.5%+$212.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$271.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Partizan vs. BC Dubaibacked Partizan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$332.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$55.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$99.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$224.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.