AI · resolved market
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7dee18fb2c02b56f45720e753d0e4483f441e04a40062d58227ce2d9bd5dd40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 7c | 5,500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 53c | 2,537$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 47c | 1,693$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 23c | 1,553$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 37c | 1,532$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 34c | 1,423$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 69c | 1,399$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.46 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 77c | 1,392$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 77c | 1,321$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 56c | 1,224$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,176$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 23c | 1,080$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,072$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed No | 34c | 1,060$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No | 77c | 1,056$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 77c | 1,050$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 36c | 1,035$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 30c | 1,015$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 23c | 993$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 23c | 993$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 66c | 986$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 23c | 981$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 23c | 966$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 77c | 966$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.82 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 30c | 922.87$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 67c | 904$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.38 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 51c | 899$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed No | 77c | 893$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 23c | 884$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 23c | 870$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 47c | 859$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 18c | 845$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 77c | 828$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 67c | 813$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 77c | 807$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 77c | 799$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 34c | 788$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked No | 77c | 767$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 65c | 734$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 23c | 721$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.17 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 34c | 721$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 34c | 719$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 23c | 688$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 77c | 683$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 41c | 679$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed No | 77c | 662$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 77c | 652$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 23c | 631$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 77c | 600$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 33c | 596$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 29c | 596$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 68c | 584$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 66c | 579$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked No | 77c | 579$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 77c | 567$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 23c | 567$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 31c | 566$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 67c | 561$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 23c | 561$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…5f6abacked No | 77c | 554$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 77c | 551$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 68c | 551$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 23c | 546$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 23c | 546$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 23c | 534$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 23c | 533$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 77c | 519$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 77c | 516$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 23c | 513$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 69c | 507$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 77c | 496$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 77c | 494$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 67c | 489$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 36c | 484$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 23c | 480$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 23c | 457$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 77c | 457$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 77c | 456$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 66c | 442$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 66c | 431$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 65c | 427$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 23c | 422$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 23c | 417$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 67c | 416$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 66c | 412$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 69c | 405$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 77c | 402$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 77c | 390$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 24c | 390$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 66c | 389$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 77c | 389$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 18c | 379$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed Yes | 23c | 376$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 77c | 355$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 71c | 352$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 34c | 345$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 77c | 342$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 77c | 342$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 34c | 339$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 68c | 329$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.