TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae7…3e12backed No7c5,500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3704736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No53c2,537$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No47c1,693$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.481050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes23c1,553$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.812441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No37c1,532$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed No34c1,423$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes69c1,399$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.463132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed No77c1,392$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.842828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9efe…d947backed No77c1,321$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.1770%0 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb50c…8c30backed No56c1,224$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked Yes66c1,176$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed Yes23c1,080$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes23c1,072$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.442744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32a…7c05backed No34c1,060$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No77c1,056$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed No77c1,050$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes36c1,035$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.221947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa098…81e4backed No30c1,015$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.231030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes23c993$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.611952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes23c993$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.612161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes66c986$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.24850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed Yes23c981$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.371844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes23c966$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.821747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No77c966$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.822462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No30c922.87$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.861533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes67c904$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.382657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes51c899$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.111827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b4c…44d8backed No77c893$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes23c884$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.681936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes23c870$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.91457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes47c859$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.752030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked No18c845$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.791643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No77c828$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.562330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes67c813$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.291070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+105.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No77c807$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked No77c799$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked No34c788$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ae…e13abacked No77c767$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b92…7585backed Yes65c734$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.741346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes23c721$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.172536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6307…0447backed No34c721$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.141010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3719…bd84backed No34c719$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes23c688$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.762045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked No77c683$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.911163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No41c679$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed No77c662$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.741442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed No77c652$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes23c631$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.871233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No77c600$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+179.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked No33c596$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed No29c596$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd569…3037backed Yes68c584$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.881010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-85.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes66c579$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked No77c579$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No77c567$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.592227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed Yes23c567$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed No31c566$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes67c561$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.132142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes23c561$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.972343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5d…5f6abacked No77c554$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed No77c551$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed Yes68c551$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.321850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes23c546$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.422259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes23c546$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.422857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes23c534$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.181546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes23c533$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.411010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No77c519$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.631735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No77c516$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.321330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes23c513$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes69c507$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked No77c496$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.921050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed No77c494$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.382245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes67c489$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.371741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes36c484$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.723540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked Yes23c480$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+90.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes23c457$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.891464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No77c457$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.892227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No77c456$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.121643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes66c442$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed Yes66c431$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.541050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes65c427$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.021241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes23c422$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.941758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed Yes23c417$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.091145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1697…4cf6backed Yes67c416$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes66c412$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.082236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes69c405$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed No77c402$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.542441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No77c390$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.32334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes24c390$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.562454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes66c389$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.261250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed No77c389$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed No18c379$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01d6…0511backed Yes23c376$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No77c355$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.351030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Yes71c352$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.081838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed No34c345$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No77c342$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.34825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked No77c342$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.341050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked No34c339$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes68c329$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.281566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.