AI · resolved market
Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41836ba31c22b2195234b9e8d5bed9874a6ad60c2f223124e4403a1d2e30b319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 20c | 1,032$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 20c | 1,004$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 20c | 860$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 20c | 824$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 20c | 613$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 19c | 586$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked No | 20c | 556$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 20c | 482$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 20c | 428$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 20c | 335$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 16c | 325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 20c | 254$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…9a7cbacked No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 20c | 204$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11b…db9dbacked No | 13c | 196.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…7c54backed Yes | 80c | 128.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 20c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.