AI · resolved market
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b89d7330db17fa0a1169293d641bf9fdaf964afc9e4063a21fe56897ca7bfff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 40c | 1,399$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 60c | 1,285$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 25c | 1,142$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 16c | 1,047$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 40c | 933$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 70c | 893$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed Yes | 75c | 868$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 60c | 826$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 18c | 753$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 30c | 583$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…d291backed Yes | 58c | 555.51$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 40c | 548$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 8c | 485.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 60c | 430$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 40c | 430$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 16c | 374$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 17c | 362$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 19c | 354$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 60c | 332$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 18c | 311$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 30c | 310$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 19c | 299$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 19c | 293$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 75c | 252$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…9a7cbacked No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 67c | 230.87$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 60c | 216$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 16c | 188$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 60c | 107$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes | 79c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.