TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd320…81a5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$40.89
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$58.52
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+426.3%+$103.68
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$7.83
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$75.6
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$17.75
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.38
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$465.85
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+284.6%+$372.22
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+96.1%+$166.6
Will "The Abandons" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$87.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.92
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.62
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$666.75
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$258.74
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+203%+$83.08
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$675.65
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$405.02
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+163.2%+$133.92
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$161.5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$68.2
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$387.52
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$403.26
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$70.11
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.25
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.19
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$68.9
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$45
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+130.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$622.65
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$392.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Grand Rapids Griffinsbacked Grand Rapids Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.