World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b894271b51686dcb0785cf69b39f33e550378a6e7bd3d847f616aef5c90609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 63c | 5,004$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.72 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No | 10c | 4,247$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…a72bbacked No | 40c | 2,866$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 32c | 2,824$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 62c | 2,620$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…d7d9backed No | 30c | 2,262$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed No | 33c | 2,051$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 70c | 2,014$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 33c | 1,959$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.22 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 74c | 1,648$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…e0f2backed No | 25c | 1,268$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 1,200$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.72 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 75c | 1,111$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 25c | 1,069$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 69c | 985.19$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.23 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…048ebacked No | 34c | 983.18$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 33c | 927$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 67c | 927$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…a2c4backed Yes | 70c | 926.21$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 38c | 905$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x763c…6b9dbacked No | 25c | 900.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 38c | 883$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 63c | 879$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 37c | 879$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 71c | 848.21$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 846.85$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.21 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 38c | 832$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…ffd6backed No | 33c | 781.73$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 26c | 781$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 74c | 781$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 67c | 750$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.52 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…59d3backed No | 25c | 697.34$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aef…f0f1backed No | 25c | 683.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 26c | 683$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 26c | 682$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 69c | 675.33$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 74c | 666.88$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…8de1backed Yes | 79c | 657.51$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…ab74backed No | 25c | 581.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 572.41$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed Yes | 70c | 546.18$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…6f2cbacked No | 37c | 529.23$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.48 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 36cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 62c | 520$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 38c | 520$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…69d4backed No | 21c | 509.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 79c | 496.57$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…3aa0backed Yes | 66c | 471.19$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…b44bbacked No | 26c | 470$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 29c | 451.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 64c | 450$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 73c | 449.83$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Yes | 71c | 423.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 67c | 416$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 37c | 382$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 63c | 382$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed Yes | 68c | 368.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 67c | 297.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 26c | 285.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 26c | 283$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…1adebacked No | 30c | 270.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 30c | 266.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed Yes | 74c | 260.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 79c | 258.76$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 72c | 254$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 67c | 251.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…dd4bbacked Yes | 74c | 250$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 68c | 246$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…8d0abacked No | 21c | 240.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd80…4343backed Yes | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 33c | 217$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed Yes | 68c | 216.13$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes | 76c | 196.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…c252backed Yes | 66c | 189.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 68c | 186.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 70c | 177.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked No | 29c | 170.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 32c | 148$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…aae2backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…e35fbacked Yes | 75c | 132.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +260.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd97a…db7ebacked Yes | 75c | 132.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…7d04backed Yes | 67c | 128$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 28c | 124$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 66c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 24c | 119.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 111.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 79c | 100.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9eb8backed Yes | 77c | 91.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…800dbacked No | 29c | 74.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…8977backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?this page
- Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.