World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e47ad377273a39833506ca16c597c7eccdee686375b30f1910f3ef3ff734f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No | 9c | 69,009$6,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,219.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 28c | 30,643$8,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,935.98 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed No | 58c | 29,626$17,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 64c | 28,283$18,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,229.74 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 24,952$12,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,492.41 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked No | 56c | 23,306$12,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,976.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…4228backed Yes | 33c | 20,474$6,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,752.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked No | 63c | 14,138$8,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,906.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 31c | 14,098$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,754.83 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 79c | 14,058$11,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 54c | 11,518$6,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,190.7 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7a…c291backed Yes | 42c | 7,482$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.27 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…972abacked No | 75c | 6,694$5,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,020.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked No | 13c | 6,271$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 70c | 5,930$4,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,129.15 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed No | 67c | 5,494$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.62 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked Yes | 32c | 5,475$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,697.43 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 68c | 5,475$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.16 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…c37abacked Yes | 27c | 5,325$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,872.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No | 72c | 5,200$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 18c | 5,000$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.03 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 28c | 4,825$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,467.08 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 34c | 4,749$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.69 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6448…3e29backed Yes | 34c | 4,587$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,023.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…456cbacked Yes | 33c | 4,387$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,941.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed Yes | 73c | 4,304$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.78 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 13c | 4,289$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.69 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 29c | 4,089$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.89 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 65c | 4,006$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.41 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed No | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 3,378$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.24 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 55c | 3,347$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.8 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…a31bbacked Yes | 39c | 3,268$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.98 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,735$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 24c | 2,708$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.99 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…1ad7backed No | 72c | 2,693$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 66c | 2,553$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.79 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…ecebbacked No | 56c | 2,521$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 65c | 2,500$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 14c | 2,490$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,399$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.54 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 68c | 2,361$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.69 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 29c | 2,190$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 2,188$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…ce14backed Yes | 34c | 1,916$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 31c | 1,794$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked No | 51c | 1,777$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 46c | 1,766$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.5 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 1,764$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 68c | 1,740$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.16 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 31c | 1,570$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,568$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.81 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes | 55c | 1,444$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.07 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…37b5backed No | 70c | 1,415$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 71c | 1,400$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.62 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 67c | 1,304$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 74c | 1,243$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,220$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked No | 71c | 1,150$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 1,148$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.97 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 24c | 1,137$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.27 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 66c | 1,120$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 73c | 1,103$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,091$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked No | 59c | 1,083$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.22 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 13c | 1,083$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 63c | 1,070$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.54 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,046$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.29 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc78f…07eebacked Yes | 33c | 1,040$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 74c | 1,000$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed Yes | 27c | 975.7$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.89 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…26ccbacked Yes | 33c | 909.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 862.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 65c | 851.38$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.53 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 69c | 846.19$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 828.77$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…eb0abacked Yes | 33c | 824.24$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed Yes | 29c | 801.55$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.55 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x03b1…b265backed Yes | 38c | 800.21$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 72c | 794.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 73c | 750$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 68c | 749.99$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…d7a2backed Yes | 40c | 742.55$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 71c | 730$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.17 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 32c | 714.47$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8591…6e07backed Yes | 33c | 700$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…cb4dbacked No | 72c | 694.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 38c | 685.32$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes | 32c | 661$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 31c | 660$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 26c | 625$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 26c | 618$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 69c | 599.95$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.69 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 66c | 580$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?this page
- Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.