World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ed8d5fa242785890944bb7c388a22056ad54a378dc21ccfd6507939459ee4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No | 16c | 58,831$9,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,401.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 49c | 34,534$16,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,623.33 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 52c | 14,250$7,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,443.57 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 73c | 10,893$7,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,941.27 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 42c | 8,000$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.99 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 7,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc58…5fd0backed Yes | 53c | 6,439$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,045.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…8d0abacked No | 50c | 6,018$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed No | 45c | 5,483$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 46c | 5,404$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.36 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 49c | 3,600$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…af7abacked No | 46c | 3,248$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 53c | 2,900$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…ab8dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,653$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…1721backed Yes | 55c | 2,624$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed No | 48c | 2,540$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 50c | 2,500$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 52c | 2,463$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.25 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…d7d9backed No | 50c | 2,262$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…4ffabacked No | 49c | 2,226$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 47c | 2,204$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…ecebbacked No | 50c | 2,191$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 55c | 2,182$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.95 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 46c | 2,113$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.35 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ba…8619backed Yes | 60c | 2,090$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 51c | 2,081$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.11 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 54c | 1,909$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 1,841$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.94 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…2056backed No | 55c | 1,829$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,818$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7a…c291backed Yes | 70c | 1,703$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.87 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…1267backed Yes | 73c | 1,551$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…3093backed No | 46c | 1,339$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 57c | 1,050$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.18 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 51c | 1,044$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b1…b265backed Yes | 69c | 1,023$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 37c | 1,019$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…0f36backed No | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 49c | 982$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 49c | 948$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 946.58$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.87 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 49c | 932$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Yes | 60c | 908.22$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 54c | 884.74$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.13 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked No | 48c | 849.93$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 52c | 811.21$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.13 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 43c | 782.92$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 49c | 755.57$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 47c | 750$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 747.43$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.87 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed Yes | 51c | 745.88$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.88 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…e0febacked Yes | 51c | 742.23$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…9b2ebacked Yes | 68c | 732.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 48c | 723.33$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.37 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 10c | 674.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 44c | 660.58$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…5fd7backed No | 46c | 657.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 44c | 651.21$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed Yes | 58c | 650.85$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.03 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b7…225cbacked No | 49c | 607$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc19…0650backed No | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 48c | 560$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 52c | 560$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes | 62c | 536.53$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…4425backed No | 44c | 534.78$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 53c | 527.08$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.73 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 49c | 517.22$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…26ccbacked Yes | 60c | 501.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78f…07eebacked Yes | 51c | 492.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 49c | 488.87$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 52c | 481$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 40cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed No | 52c | 462$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…f2b8backed Yes | 69c | 436.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…e1a0backed No | 38c | 423.89$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 63c | 406.18$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 29c | 405.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 54c | 371.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 50c | 361.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…370cbacked No | 47c | 346$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…8de1backed No | 58c | 345.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 5c | 339.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa44…1546backed Yes | 45c | 327.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 46c | 321.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…e697backed No | 41c | 302.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…58a4backed Yes | 51c | 279.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed Yes | 53c | 277.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 276.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…2baabacked No | 38c | 262.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 49c | 225.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 54c | 216.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?this page
- Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.