World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12431289c190b53824412aeba2177b49829a07c9f7b238c42c81807e85240938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 63c | 10,053$6,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,703.54 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No | 30c | 6,474$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…4ffabacked No | 43c | 4,155$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 63c | 3,855$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.94 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…d7d9backed No | 38c | 3,645$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…26ccbacked Yes | 65c | 2,434$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…af7abacked No | 32c | 2,357$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7a…c291backed Yes | 78c | 2,315$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.62 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…7f14backed No | 22c | 2,309$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 36c | 1,997$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.03 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 34c | 1,850$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.94 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked No | 30c | 1,630$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 1,559$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.61 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 31c | 1,505$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.5 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 37c | 1,300$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 32c | 1,145$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…0d9bbacked No | 17c | 1,084$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 32c | 1,039$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…5fd7backed No | 27c | 1,029$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 70c | 952$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 70c | 803$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 54c | 784.16$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.53 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 30c | 767$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked Yes | 68c | 735.39$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 65c | 706.29$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…9b2ebacked Yes | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 650.33$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.25 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 70c | 642$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 35c | 555$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed Yes | 61c | 541.74$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 51c | 532$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.76 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…6f2cbacked No | 52c | 530.05$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.63 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 36cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 68c | 520$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 68c | 519$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 505.66$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed Yes | 64c | 468.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 34c | 440$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 70c | 426.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 47c | 402.34$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.04 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked No | 51c | 394$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 388.01$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed Yes | 67c | 370.24$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed No | 23c | 365.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 64c | 362.61$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 65c | 354.37$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 75c | 325.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 49c | 313.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…6630backed No | 35c | 285.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes | 71c | 264.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…1b74backed No | 38c | 264.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f5…902fbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…8960backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…e03fbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…5a7dbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…c555backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dc…72afbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…b2f0backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…70ebbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d2c8backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…a05fbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…97a6backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…a765backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af6…ac34backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b21…44d9backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc71…4971backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…c207backed No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 32c | 247$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 35c | 243.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 65c | 240$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…4393backed Yes | 63c | 238.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed Yes | 63c | 232.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 45c | 224.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 36c | 221.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…672cbacked Yes | 58c | 221.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 44c | 213$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 26c | 207.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 78c | 201.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 50c | 199.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 194.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…8de1backed Yes | 75c | 186.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cb…dc70backed No | 33c | 181.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 62c | 180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 30c | 167.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fce…c09abacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…b7d9backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…4979backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…6e6dbacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…6307backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…975abacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af9…2b7fbacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…5995backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…4971backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1224…d110backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?this page
- Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.