TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc91a…6630

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$25.22
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.14
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.35
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.66
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.99
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.66
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.92
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33.33
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.91
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$107.69
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.84
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+79.7%+$159.35
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$74.17
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.16
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.67
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.83
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.99
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.15
Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$77.93
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.58
All 23 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$138.26
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$75.03
All 3 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+81.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+455.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.85
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$1,208.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+178.1%+$70.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.77
ATX Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfibacked Galfi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+160.8%+$28.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1backed ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.02
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.