Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99a0fdc1bb6308873bf87eb75a47e21c8340fe20fb6b033444c1d21392da10a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,465,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,586,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 29c | 367,658$107,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107,550.21 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…648cbacked No | 40c | 128,176$51,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,270.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 46c | 128,176$58,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,495.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 46c | 105,928$48,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,852.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked No | 0c | 100,012$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…7c8bbacked Yes | 50c | 92,293$46,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,292.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…6d26backed No | 50c | 92,293$46,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,292.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…90d6backed No | 40c | 80,100$32,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…a8fcbacked Yes | 60c | 80,100$48,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,040 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 39c | 80,064$30,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,134.53 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ec…f78dbacked Yes | 60c | 78,976$47,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,590.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…cc11backed No | 40c | 78,976$31,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,590.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 77,347$10,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,012.78 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…33ccbacked No | 24c | 70,869$17,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,008.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 60c | 62,679$37,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,350.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 54c | 58,158$31,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,745.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 57c | 48,288$27,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,938.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…ac75backed Yes | 52c | 47,540$24,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,713.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 52c | 47,500$24,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 53c | 45,000$23,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 42c | 44,853$18,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,009.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 46c | 40,000$18,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,400 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aac…225abacked Yes | 53c | 33,284$17,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,479.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 59c | 33,094$19,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,584.8 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 54c | 32,000$17,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,739.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 14c | 29,013$4,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,841.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 62c | 28,500$17,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,713.8 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…fb31backed Yes | 76c | 27,979$21,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,714.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 37c | 27,888$10,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,546.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 49c | 27,729$13,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,234.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 58c | 27,694$15,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,703.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 25,187$7,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,694.98 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7f…56e4backed Yes | 76c | 23,412$17,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 60c | 22,535$13,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,013.81 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 50c | 20,513$10,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,268.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 54c | 20,308$10,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,324.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 27c | 20,155$5,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,759.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…e7a3backed Yes | 76c | 19,811$15,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,754.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 4c | 17,604$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 49c | 17,351$8,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,800.78 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 46c | 16,916$7,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,185.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 69c | 16,666$11,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 17c | 16,204$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,372.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +543.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 38c | 15,987$6,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,884.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb3…4f21backed Yes | 53c | 15,325$8,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,185.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 20c | 15,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 58c | 14,967$8,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,227.16 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 57c | 14,558$8,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,243.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 47c | 14,390$6,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,570.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…7801backed Yes | 57c | 14,172$8,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,024.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 53c | 13,960$7,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,580.47 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 22c | 13,355$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,355.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 16c | 13,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,899.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 53c | 12,950$6,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,040.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 41c | 12,574$5,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,136.74 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 59c | 12,454$7,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,048.53 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +82%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 21c | 12,241$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 12,000$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,304.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…a68ebacked No | 46c | 12,000$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes | 55c | 11,512$6,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,135.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 57c | 11,397$6,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,923.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 49c | 11,187$5,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,686.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 58c | 10,496$6,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,430.35 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 11c | 10,302$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,169.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…56f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes | 34c | 10,000$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,900 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed No | 4c | 10,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…a5afbacked Yes | 53c | 10,000$5,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,670 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…058fbacked Yes | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 41c | 9,892$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,822.3 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 30c | 9,730$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,794.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 79c | 9,500$7,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 54c | 9,117$4,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…c3f8backed No | 64c | 9,000$5,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,759.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 46c | 8,800$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 4c | 8,375$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.9 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 8,095$4,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.14 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 31c | 8,079$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,607.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 18c | 8,043$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,628.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes | 64c | 7,840$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 10c | 7,762$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,958.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +160.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 57c | 7,493$4,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,231.44 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 62c | 7,467$4,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 41c | 7,372$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.82 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 60c | 7,149$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.29 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…b15dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,974$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,911.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +556.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…dd59backed Yes | 59c | 6,802$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 56c | 6,760$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985.54 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 49c | 6,718$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 22c | 6,668$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 78c | 6,624$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 14c | 6,493$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,584.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 6,457$3,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.85 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 71c | 6,319$4,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 6,254$3,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.47 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 59c | 6,165$3,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.04 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 58c | 6,141$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.16 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 56c | 5,848$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.07 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…e9dabacked Yes | 53c | 5,819$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?this page
- Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.