TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,465,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,586,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No29c367,658$107,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,550.213026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb04…648cbacked No40c128,176$51,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,270.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No46c128,176$58,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,495.642944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No46c105,928$48,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,852.942045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked No0c100,012$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19f…7c8bbacked Yes50c92,293$46,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,292.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afe…6d26backed No50c92,293$46,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,292.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423c…90d6backed No40c80,100$32,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c49…a8fcbacked Yes60c80,100$48,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes39c80,064$30,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,134.533737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ec…f78dbacked Yes60c78,976$47,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,590.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdc…cc11backed No40c78,976$31,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,590.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c77,347$10,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,012.788133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddae…33ccbacked No24c70,869$17,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,008.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes60c62,679$37,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,350.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes54c58,158$31,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,745.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes57c48,288$27,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,938.982147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2d…ac75backed Yes52c47,540$24,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,713.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Yes52c47,500$24,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked Yes53c45,000$23,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes42c44,853$18,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,009.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No46c40,000$18,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,400100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3aac…225abacked Yes53c33,284$17,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,479.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes59c33,094$19,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,584.815150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes54c32,000$17,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,739.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes14c29,013$4,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,841.652236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes62c28,500$17,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,713.85738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e0…fb31backed Yes76c27,979$21,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,714.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes37c27,888$10,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,546.6234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes49c27,729$13,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,234.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed Yes58c27,694$15,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,703.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes30c25,187$7,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,694.983250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7f…56e4backed Yes76c23,412$17,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,618.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes60c22,535$13,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,013.8121033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes50c20,513$10,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,268.211030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3875…1fd2backed Yes54c20,308$10,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,324.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes27c20,155$5,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,759.441650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e3…e7a3backed Yes76c19,811$15,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,754.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked No4c17,604$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes49c17,351$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,800.785044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes46c16,916$7,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,185.242250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes69c16,666$11,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,222.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes17c16,204$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,372.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+543.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes38c15,987$6,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,884.252524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedb3…4f21backed Yes53c15,325$8,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,185.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No20c15,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes58c14,967$8,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,227.164744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes57c14,558$8,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,243.383043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes47c14,390$6,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,570.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…7801backed Yes57c14,172$8,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,024.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes53c13,960$7,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,580.477639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes22c13,355$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,355.071233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes16c13,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,899.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes53c12,950$6,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No41c12,574$5,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,136.744729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes59c12,454$7,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,048.531586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No21c12,241$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.543046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes14c12,000$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,304.711330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x898d…a68ebacked No46c12,000$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes55c11,512$6,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,135.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes57c11,397$6,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,923.381566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes49c11,187$5,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,686.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes58c10,496$6,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,430.357731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes11c10,302$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,169.091361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb10f…56f4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes34c10,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,560742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes11c10,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,900263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed No4c10,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Yes53c10,000$5,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…058fbacked Yes60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes41c9,892$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,822.33116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes30c9,730$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,794.332638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes79c9,500$7,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes54c9,117$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.03119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-83.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb3…c3f8backed No64c9,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,759.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed No46c8,800$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No4c8,375$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.93920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes58c8,095$4,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.1416833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes31c8,079$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,607.23714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes18c8,043$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,628.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+468.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes64c7,840$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.34683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes10c7,762$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,958.01560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+160.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes57c7,493$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.445545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes62c7,467$4,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.671747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No41c7,372$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035.825133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes60c7,149$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.295552.7%29 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cbf…b15dbacked Yes15c6,974$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,911.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+556.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8e…dd59backed Yes59c6,802$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes56c6,760$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.547534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes49c6,718$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.761060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No22c6,668$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes78c6,624$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes14c6,493$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,584.011233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+129.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes58c6,457$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.8516632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes71c6,319$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes63c6,254$3,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.478550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes59c6,165$3,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.044729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes58c6,141$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,576.165251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes56c5,848$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.0719643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd47f…e9dabacked Yes53c5,819$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.