Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de68dfbcfa9e9b6472bceec9aea2f252038cc12df9838b1f0016c02ec94b6d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $971,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $971,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb9…e328backed Yes | 0c | 50,598$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…3590backed Yes | 0c | 46,370$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 25,723$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,999$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 0c | 19,008$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…10a6backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…47fbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…d140backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732a…289fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…0180backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9baa…b8a2backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…578ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…1cd0backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…e862backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…a9c8backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c451backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…777fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3782…a22fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…6a63backed Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…128bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…6cbabacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…2dfcbacked Yes | 0c | 13,106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa505…1fdcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,617$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…fad6backed Yes | 0c | 12,611$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,910$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…5cf0backed Yes | 1c | 6,441$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…8d7dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,305$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79a3backed Yes | 0c | 3,376$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…ff95backed Yes | 0c | 2,186$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed Yes | 1c | 2,182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f2…f165backed Yes | 1c | 2,182$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?this page
- Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes won
- Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.