NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716933d4f6346ba324918c3980d6b43a2316e0b12bf63221185575beb04084a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $615,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $707,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $615,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,063 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1925…4654backed Capitals | 59c | 152,051$89,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,340.95 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 101,141$36,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,719.43 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 100,000$41,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,999.92 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Capitals | 58c | 50,973$29,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,391.78 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 40,000$16,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,399.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Capitals | 72c | 25,555$18,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155.4 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,199.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 16,143$5,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,658 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 59c | 16,022$9,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,569.65 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 14,521$5,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,953.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Capitals | 59c | 12,807$7,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250.85 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Capitals | 59c | 8,001$4,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.41 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Capitals | 72c | 7,777$5,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.56 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Capitals | 59c | 7,407$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.04 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 58c | 7,391$4,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.63 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594d…5c87backed Maple Leafs | 0c | 7,375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Capitals | 62c | 6,821$4,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.41 | 199 | 64.3%128 W · 71 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 6,666$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.77 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4084…357abacked Capitals | 59c | 6,441$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Capitals | 75c | 6,128$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.16 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…c10ebacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 6,000$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Capitals | 57c | 5,557$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.46 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Capitals | 73c | 5,372$3,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.29 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Capitals | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Capitals | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Capitals | 58c | 4,500$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.96 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 4,489$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.38 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 4,444$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.03 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 4,111$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.61 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Capitals | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.99 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Capitals | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.97 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 18c | 3,884$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.42 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…3c6cbacked Capitals | 58c | 3,671$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.97 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 3,574$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.06 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 3,333$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.53 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Capitals | 58c | 3,333$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.86 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Capitals | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 278 | 50.4%140 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 2,400$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.98 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 2,222$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Maple Leafs | 8c | 2,146$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 332 | 34.3%114 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Capitals | 63c | 2,111$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.62 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Capitals | 68c | 2,087$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.57 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…7991backed Capitals | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Capitals | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Capitals | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Capitals | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Capitals | 57c | 1,932$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.74 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Capitals | 57c | 1,848$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.63 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…5da2backed Maple Leafs | 10c | 1,800$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked Capitals | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…daa8backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,700$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…b757backed Capitals | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…0162backed Capitals | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 1,687$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked Capitals | 58c | 1,650$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 1,500$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.5 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 1,479$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 250 | 4.8%12 W · 238 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Capitals | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Capitals | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Capitals | 59c | 1,110$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.16 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Capitals | 73c | 1,055$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.85 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 1,037$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.08 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs | 3c | 1,020$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 544 | 18%98 W · 446 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Capitals | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…6146backed Maple Leafs | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…7cf5backed Capitals | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Capitals | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +27.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…1878backed Capitals | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Capitals | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Capitals | 58c | 999.95$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.98 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 980$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Capitals | 59c | 932.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Capitals | 59c | 860$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.6 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Capitals | 59c | 860$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.6 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…f436backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 849.98$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…42d9backed Capitals | 59c | 848.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…6813backed Capitals | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 822.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Capitals | 77c | 805.88$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.28 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…f204backed Capitals | 58c | 800$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…1f46backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 799.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Capitals | 58c | 785.12$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.52 | 459 | 55.1%253 W · 206 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 750$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Capitals | 59c | 737.66$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.44 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Capitals | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2f…874dbacked Capitals | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Capitals | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Capitals | 58c | 689.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.8 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Capitals | 57c | 682.9$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 657.14$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 650$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed Capitals | 58c | 649.99$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Capitals | 73c | 634.44$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…4ad4backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafsthis page
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.