NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d851312e4cf318c70b6fc1ce286ae9c7423290ad58ceda2cc860504f945395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 49c | 11,643$5,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,937.74 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 51c | 5,820$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.95 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 4,431$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.56 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…d750backed Over | 51c | 4,003$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 3,173$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Over | 50c | 1,970$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 1,760$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.14 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 48c | 1,495$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.84 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 52c | 1,453$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.26 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 49c | 1,213$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.59 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 759.17$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.18 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 700.41$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Over | 50c | 597.73$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 49c | 530$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…98cebacked Under | 52c | 514.34$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 484.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.69 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 47c | 457.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 450.96$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.48 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 432$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…eb4dbacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…990ebacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 297.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 241.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b0…441bbacked Under | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a503backed Over | 50c | 237$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 51c | 206.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 198.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 51.1%113 W · 108 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…09fcbacked Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…1b1abacked Over | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…4bc9backed Under | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 48c | 165.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…aa48backed Under | 51c | 119.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 117$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e1…23d9backed Over | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 49c | 83.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…2bb3backed Over | 48c | 80.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 72.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5464backed Over | 50c | 71.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 50c | 57.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 50.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 50c | 50.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Under | 52c | 48.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…958ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…5bd4backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…47b3backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 50c | 46.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…0c47backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Over | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…25efbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 50c | 33.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…f170backed Under | 52c | 32.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Over | 50c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 50c | 25.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. Maple LeafsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.