NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b347f8f24b5834b2685459df5e4cd9f3e378047dc6bf5aa8d27e778c3fe5c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Capitals | 38c | 1,514$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 903.69$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 893.88$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.21 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 35c | 668.8$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.66 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Capitals | 38c | 604.08$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.59 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 460.47$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Capitals | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Capitals | 37c | 340.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Capitals | 38c | 253.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Capitals | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 180.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 166.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…d1f3backed Capitals | 36c | 160.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Capitals | 37c | 95.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 91.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 91.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 88.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 77.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Capitals | 36c | 68.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…25abbacked Capitals | 35c | 61.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 55.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Capitals | 39c | 52.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Maple Leafs | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…de47backed Capitals | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 32.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 30.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 30.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Capitals | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…2554backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 27.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…f08abacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 18.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. Maple LeafsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.