NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa579376fc7cd1b91177cd6d32507a25f6e7d89f2a32c5667cceb4da929b573c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 61c | 3,385$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.64 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 39c | 2,086$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.13 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 1,998$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.66 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Over | 60c | 834.92$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.95 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 297.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 291.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 40c | 282.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 39c | 162$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 153.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 68c | 149.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 60c | 129.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 108.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 84.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 41c | 84.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…03e9backed Over | 62c | 80.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 62c | 64.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 32c | 57.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 57.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 32c | 50.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 55c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 40c | 38.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Under | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 39c | 32.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 40c | 25.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…8932backed Over | 60c | 24.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 60c | 23.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. Maple LeafsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.