Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ccf9e55892d623610bf91f49d954df5ff72f8046ede80e1dd9f24d155508db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 47c | 5,246$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.63 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 56c | 4,378$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.59 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 64c | 1,957$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.61 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 51c | 1,650$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.39 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 14c | 1,413$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 14c | 1,373$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 80c | 1,233$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 43c | 1,140$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.29 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 38c | 996.12$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.87 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 48c | 937$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.76 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 62c | 749.02$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 40c | 700$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 20c | 618$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 20c | 615$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 48c | 559$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 52c | 559$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 61c | 521$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 39c | 521$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…39f8backed Yes | 47c | 423.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…f326backed No | 56c | 422.31$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 342.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…be87backed No | 62c | 329.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 46c | 300.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 45c | 299.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked No | 53c | 275.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 42c | 249.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 55c | 243$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 45c | 231.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…6630backed No | 53c | 226.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 202.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 50c | 201.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 48c | 199.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 55c | 186.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902a…9409backed No | 69c | 169.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…e12dbacked Yes | 49c | 161.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 156.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 153.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 41c | 132.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 130.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 50c | 121.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…3090backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 111$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 47c | 107.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 48c | 104.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…350bbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 47c | 92.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 52c | 84.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 62c | 84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 48c | 82.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…d60dbacked No | 49c | 79.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0e…7cd8backed Yes | 65c | 67.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…4e57backed Yes | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 55c | 65.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d48…a59cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…1aa4backed No | 51c | 61.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…012abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…146abacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…4389backed No | 51c | 52.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…4803backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 48c | 48.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…6f84backed Yes | 46c | 47.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 64c | 46.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 54c | 45.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…a5a9backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…d7e4backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 36.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 78c | 35.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…60c3backed No | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 51c | 32.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…f245backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…1e41backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.