Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7de0254f756d6106f35ae1c90e8147f6e46ee5ff994ca042d00db90df5fc9d8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,971$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 74c | 1,695$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,134$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 16c | 1,115$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 1,112$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 69c | 1,088$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.87 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 63c | 850$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 16c | 830$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 16c | 821$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 26c | 728$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 37c | 638$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked Yes | 16c | 635$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 72c | 608$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 37c | 579$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 32c | 537$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 68c | 537$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 28c | 452$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 28c | 438$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 28c | 426$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 72c | 402$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 394.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 63c | 367$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 26c | 362$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 26c | 299$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 31c | 254$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 14c | 249.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 15c | 247.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 243$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 30c | 227.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 209.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3246…63dfbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 6c | 197.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 18c | 155.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 141.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 26c | 130.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 28c | 115.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 14c | 106.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 34c | 103.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 14c | 100.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 90.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 82.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…60c3backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…4949backed Yes | 32c | 53.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +235.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…4803backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…fcbabacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 42.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8865…ead7backed Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…c189backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.