TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3702…829d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.68
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$135.79
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$181.42
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+43%+$62.88
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+293.1%+$707.59
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$103.36
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$324.52
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$39.73
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.24
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.72
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.44
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$178.2
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+354.5%+$386.88
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$47.6
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$55.39
Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$135.81
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+394.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$180.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$326.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+72.4%+$202.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+37%+$43.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$193.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$90.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $100 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$337.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$587.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$373.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.