Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22d8063ea125aad84ea8a2ce71a4861554e7baa5878dc9e600d129f5259dd98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 70c | 28,443$19,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,669.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 51c | 2,325$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.88 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 54c | 2,311$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 2,222$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.23 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 66c | 2,060$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 25c | 1,932$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 53c | 1,925$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 47c | 1,526$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 45c | 1,424$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 40c | 1,404$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 15c | 1,355$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.77 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 55c | 1,345$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 53c | 1,319$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,284$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 36c | 1,280$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.39 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked No | 13c | 1,260$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 55c | 1,252$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 30c | 1,230$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.34 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed No | 45c | 1,170$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 55c | 1,132$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,065$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 1,030$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.29 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 53c | 1,011$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…0e1fbacked No | 10c | 972.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 53c | 968$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed Yes | 53c | 935$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 57c | 927$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked No | 57c | 896$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 53c | 857$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 21c | 846$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked No | 56c | 827$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 19c | 814$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 47c | 801$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 18c | 779$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 11c | 775$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 80c | 771$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 51c | 770$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 46c | 760$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 752.49$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 47c | 738$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed Yes | 43c | 738$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 62c | 715$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 47c | 708$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 19c | 696$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 20c | 689$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 19c | 659$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 45c | 658$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked No | 47c | 642$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 77c | 640$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 19c | 617$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 19c | 601$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 36c | 600$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 47c | 596$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 79c | 585$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 43c | 557$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 19c | 553$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 43c | 545$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 46c | 544.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 53c | 543$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 45c | 542$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 17c | 530$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 47c | 519$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 19c | 513$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 53c | 507$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 47c | 490$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 43c | 483$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 18c | 469$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 17c | 469$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 19c | 467$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 55c | 465$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 18c | 435$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 19c | 432$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 430$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 47c | 427$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 57c | 422$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 22c | 408.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 56c | 407$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 44c | 407$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 53c | 406$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 13c | 404$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…0470backed No | 11c | 402.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 60c | 400$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 20c | 398$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 47c | 396$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 53c | 395$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 53c | 395$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 47c | 395$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 53c | 386$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 55c | 384$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 45c | 384$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 47c | 377$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 53c | 374$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…a74abacked No | 11c | 365.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 19c | 360$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 351.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 18c | 341$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.