Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474d64efa8388276eb4a6851fe5d7dc76b33d01c447c02e8c6caaba656edd722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,544$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…f94ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,409$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 5,352$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.16 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 6c | 2,941$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 2,834$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,251$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,215$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,201$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,992$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,970$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 5c | 1,968$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,770$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,587$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,499$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,376$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,309$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…3ad3backed Yes | 2c | 1,182$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 79c | 1,170$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,168$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,134$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,065$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 8c | 1,023$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 4c | 999.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 79c | 956$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 2c | 952.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 21c | 931$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 880.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…a909backed Yes | 3c | 874.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 23c | 801$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes | 3c | 769.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 78c | 763$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 739.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 8c | 730.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 14c | 727$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 4c | 710$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 78c | 697$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 23c | 628$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 22c | 610$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 14c | 583$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 5c | 550.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 15c | 547$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 14c | 537$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 23c | 533$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 15c | 525$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 77c | 518$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed No | 78c | 515$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 77c | 513$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…fabdbacked Yes | 4c | 509.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 15c | 494$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 14c | 490$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 79c | 468$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 22c | 457$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 15c | 452$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 21c | 446$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 436.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 15c | 431.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 10c | 375.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 365.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 77c | 353$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 21c | 346$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 21c | 343$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 14c | 340$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 327$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 14c | 303$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 14c | 302$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 16c | 297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 79c | 294$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed Yes | 15c | 278$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 78c | 277$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 11c | 275.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 23c | 268$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…c0e8backed Yes | 8c | 258.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 257.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 20c | 236$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 80c | 235$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 234.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 23c | 222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc6…e737backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…205dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…1b8fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 14c | 192$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 23c | 181$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 23c | 176$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 16c | 171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 8c | 170.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 165.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 23c | 164$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 16c | 161$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 23c | 149$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 9c | 140.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.