Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd65054b96c7bd231ddfa8bd3f1250c734c02cf1dd118206d4d06db892bbfe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 14,001$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 34c | 13,722$4,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,626.35 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,919$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 35c | 4,168$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.18 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 24c | 2,460$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.34 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed No | 70c | 1,807$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,664$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.72 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 39c | 1,643$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 11c | 1,640$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 72c | 1,469$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 38c | 1,452$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 72c | 1,292$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 61c | 1,281$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 61c | 1,245$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 13c | 1,190$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 36c | 1,168$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 30c | 1,114$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 63c | 1,106$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 39c | 1,088$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 78c | 1,069$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 38c | 1,010$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 62c | 1,007$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,002$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe007…3e53backed Yes | 17c | 976.92$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 80c | 969.07$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 39c | 941$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 36c | 938$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 38c | 928$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 15c | 864.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 39c | 852$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 61c | 840$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 38c | 829$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 38c | 823$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 61c | 816$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 62c | 810$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 39c | 808$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 61c | 807$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 73c | 784$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.86 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 782.21$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 61c | 781$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 14c | 775$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 62c | 764$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 39c | 759$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 61c | 752$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 18c | 747.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 12c | 737$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 23c | 720.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 28c | 715$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 39c | 698$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 61c | 698$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 659.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 39c | 650$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 62c | 642$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 23c | 641$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 39c | 641$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 16c | 639$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 633.89$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 616.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 77c | 616$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 603.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 31c | 600$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 39c | 599$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 16c | 595$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 15c | 583$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 61c | 583$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 38c | 580$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 69c | 577.22$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 62c | 573$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 38c | 572$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 61c | 571$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 10c | 553.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 61c | 553$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 38c | 551$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 62c | 551$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 61c | 544$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 535.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 18c | 533$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed Yes | 22c | 533$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 13c | 524$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 39c | 520$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 39c | 503$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 501.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 25c | 500.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 18c | 498$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 16c | 497$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 38c | 493$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…eb1dbacked Yes | 17c | 492$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 62c | 489$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 22c | 477$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 22c | 477$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 78c | 469$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 39c | 453$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 61c | 450$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 14c | 444$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 63c | 439$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 14c | 437$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.