Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eafeb3b82b555896e229e5bef1148ed3b9b1a3b3a2a2384fceaf269a4d10647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3572…f03bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…ba7dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…f94ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,849$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,087$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 2,999$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 3c | 2,900$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,115$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Yes | 1c | 1,977$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,715$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…3ad3backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 1,564$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,511$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,327$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,207$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,158$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 11c | 1,134$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 12c | 1,112$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 12c | 1,094$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,019$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 17c | 1,013$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 12c | 992$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…249abacked Yes | 3c | 987.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 979.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 19c | 976$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 11c | 882$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 14c | 788$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 786$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 18c | 723$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 3c | 715$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 80c | 707$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 19c | 698$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 20c | 693$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 12c | 689$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 13c | 683$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 13c | 642$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 14c | 641$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Yes | 3c | 637.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 12c | 632$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 12c | 631$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 12c | 606$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 80c | 605$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 14c | 585$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 14c | 571$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 18c | 568.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 11c | 544.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 12c | 540$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 17c | 536$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 19c | 536$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 20c | 534$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 18c | 522$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 11c | 510$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 11c | 492$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 14c | 490$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 487.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 8c | 482.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 15c | 481$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked Yes | 11c | 470$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…9b5abacked Yes | 6c | 466.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 465.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 20c | 452$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 4c | 449.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 11c | 448$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 11c | 448$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 19c | 445$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 424.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 12c | 421$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…dcd8backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 12c | 412$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed Yes | 12c | 412$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 403.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed Yes | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 12c | 393$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 389.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 11c | 370$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 18c | 365$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 11c | 343$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 12c | 341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 17c | 340$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 18c | 324$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 14c | 321$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 319.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 80c | 316$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 15c | 305$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 18c | 299$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 19c | 285$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 14c | 265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…957abacked Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 9c | 247.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…c57abacked Yes | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 11c | 237$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…b3febacked Yes | 22c | 232.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 14c | 228$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 11c | 222$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.