Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141660620e7b755104d432269309a834bf118c420d2627707dd4e802820f48f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 8,486$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,481$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,415$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,174$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…0fffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,961$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,806$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,792$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,680$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…000abacked Yes | 3c | 1,630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,620$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 15c | 1,408$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,303$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,183$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,046$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e61ebacked Yes | 8c | 960$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…2366backed Yes | 1c | 951.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…f3eabacked Yes | 2c | 880.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed Yes | 8c | 811.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…9b5abacked Yes | 2c | 733.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 716.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6800…f386backed Yes | 2c | 608.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…9fbbbacked Yes | 8c | 577$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 567.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8eaebacked Yes | 8c | 521$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 507.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 410.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 16c | 407$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 9c | 398.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 358.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 16c | 343$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 10c | 340$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 16c | 325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…0c8fbacked Yes | 8c | 256.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 19c | 244$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 191.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 16c | 169$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebb…c86abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 15c | 77.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac82…0ac0backed Yes | 13c | 75.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.