Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88fb4a3a28faa239f8b535090128b394715cb2454ca62d70287d80e980877142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,577$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 7c | 10,620$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 4,589$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…a74abacked Yes | 1c | 4,549$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,718$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 2,682$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 2,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 69c | 2,298$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,186$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10aa…4831backed Yes | 2c | 2,130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…27d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,116$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,059$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,014$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,880$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,860$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,852$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 32c | 1,520$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,516$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,474$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,411$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…9b5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,408$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 60c | 1,288$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 74c | 1,248$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,212$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…f3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 38c | 1,127$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 76c | 1,095$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 29c | 998$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 977.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 17c | 937$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 21c | 918$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 78c | 914$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 78c | 912$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 38c | 907$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 906.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 19c | 871$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed No | 80c | 846$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 22c | 838$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed No | 61c | 826$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…c804backed Yes | 2c | 823.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 815.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 20c | 794$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 25c | 789$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed No | 64c | 772$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 76c | 767$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 20c | 753$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 39c | 750$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c7…6849backed Yes | 7c | 747.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 23c | 747$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 25c | 746$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 20c | 745$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 22c | 724$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 20c | 723$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 20c | 721$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 40c | 717$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 21c | 717$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 19c | 716$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 2c | 710$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…a909backed Yes | 3c | 704.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…14afbacked Yes | 8c | 697.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 19c | 661$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 19c | 660$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 21c | 657$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.71 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 78c | 652$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 70c | 646$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 80c | 637$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 78c | 626$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 621.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 22c | 621$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 32c | 620$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 80c | 615$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 80c | 611$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 80c | 598$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 80c | 592$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 80c | 582$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 19c | 581$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 30c | 566$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 61c | 564$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 19c | 560$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 36c | 542$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 62c | 532$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes | 19c | 513$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 3c | 510.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 73c | 504$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 19c | 502$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 39c | 501$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 19c | 488$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc346…345fbacked Yes | 2c | 485.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 484.79$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 68c | 484.78$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 19c | 458$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 19c | 451$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.