TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x588c…1bf4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
265
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Commodities, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 59 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT7851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.6
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$909Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$909
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$178.65
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$115.5
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$187.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$158
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$143
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$732
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,301.94
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$243.87
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.19
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$879Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$879.4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$715
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.73
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.1
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+64%+$195.08
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+509.8%+$343.05
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$854Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$446.06
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$396
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.8
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$63
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$273
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$916Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$346.86
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.5
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$60
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$167.49
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.2%+$42.82
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.4%+$68.92
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$24.7
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.4%+$166.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,439Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.1%+$361
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+35.1%+$77.9
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+51.5%+$102
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$63.31
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$612
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.05
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.06
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$104.95
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$102
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.93
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.84
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+479.8%+$1,325.67
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$453.8
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$324
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.5%+$61
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.7%+$106.66
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+85.2%+$53.78
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.4%+$104.83
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$283.9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$427.87
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+133.7%+$284.07
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$70.4
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$232
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$984Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$983.5
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+45.7%+$129.16
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$182
Will Epstein Data Set 9 be released before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$82.35
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$52
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$58
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.7%+$31.49
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.8%+$165
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$148
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$68
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$164.99
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$418.6
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$159.42
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$288.12
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+33.3%+$50
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.41
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.74
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$360
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$866.43
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$90
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.53
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$502.88
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.15
Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT2737%10 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.15
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.42
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+280.9%+$435.61
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.75
Megaquake by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,295Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$852.55
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$91.06
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+258%+$782.78
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$503.35
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.35
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$101.72
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$332.16
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+71.3%+$472.71
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$52.5
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$132
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in October 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+25.9%+$177.21
Will October 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$736Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+30.3%+$223.15
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,009.89
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$91.19
2025 September second hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+55.4%+$81.01
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.35
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$418.85
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$63.15
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$72
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$424
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+141%+$1,283.22
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$745Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$745.36
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$845Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$844.99
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$97.99
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$887.6
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+54.8%+$177.1
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.2%+$175.89
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$67.84
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$150
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.49
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$335
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.95
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+38%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$756Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+111.6%+$844
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$751Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$349
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$856Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$543.99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$662Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$338
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$185
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$145.93
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$88
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$108.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$62.41
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-85.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$88.8
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$28.5
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$67
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.95
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$122
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$235
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$628
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$138
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$266.49
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+56.8%+$42.62
North Korea missile launch by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$314
North Korea missile test by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$6.09
Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.9
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$34.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift announces new original album by September 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.