Movies · resolved market
Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc9f044d9647a8e6bbe16080bcd60d3ff0d4ac0a25b699d09627c69388f7b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 67c | 4,471$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.56 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 7c | 3,022$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.23 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 54c | 2,401$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.43 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 43c | 1,600$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.92 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 37c | 1,599$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.28 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked Yes | 66c | 978.81$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 66c | 973.99$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.03 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 57c | 788.17$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.31 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 49c | 705.07$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.63 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 39c | 603.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 36c | 564.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 70c | 540$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…db70backed Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 64c | 484.83$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 4c | 389$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 378$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 32c | 321.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 60c | 315.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 60c | 212.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 172.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 77c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 38c | 144.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…0c4ebacked Yes | 70c | 113.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 65c | 91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 65c | 82.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 79.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 55c | 78.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 71.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 47c | 65.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 62c | 65.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked No | 47c | 63.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 40c | 53.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 60c | 43.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 49c | 42.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…eb55backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6m?this page
- Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6m?No won
- Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.