Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf355655fbd08319839ed3aceda8119e10969be2b64bfa5b814aa80a3d1166f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 18c | 19,430$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.37 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,790$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 3,205$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.96 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 14c | 3,108$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,834$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.51 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,508$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…22ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,276$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…8390backed Yes | 17c | 2,247$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,838$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,777$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…bf5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,685$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…b2c0backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,413$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…a178backed Yes | 15c | 1,327$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…6b3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 15c | 1,019$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 20c | 1,018$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…dbdcbacked Yes | 6c | 944.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 12c | 920.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 882.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…7a9dbacked Yes | 16c | 877.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…b70abacked Yes | 6c | 870.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 7c | 721$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 597.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 10c | 580.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 553.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 7c | 524.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…9345backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…ef9cbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 472.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…73d2backed Yes | 14c | 458.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 452.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 433.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 13c | 399.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 12c | 358.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 326.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 73c | 324.55$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 12c | 314.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 307.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…e207backed Yes | 7c | 301.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…d65cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 5c | 266.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…aa22backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…080abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 8c | 239.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 13c | 238.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked Yes | 13c | 226.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 7c | 225.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes | 5c | 215.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 208.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Yes | 7c | 205.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…f522backed Yes | 12c | 205.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 7c | 205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 8c | 179.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 7c | 174.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 10c | 154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…e1e8backed No | 79c | 152.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 150.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…8fd0backed Yes | 19c | 139$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 20c | 134.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 13c | 110.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 107.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…8cadbacked Yes | 12c | 102.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…8ea4backed Yes | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 94.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked Yes | 17c | 82.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 79c | 66.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 79c | 51.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 76c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.