Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87e8b67ce73fac9eea4e45d2712995cdb9a4621d221dbf3b6211538e60d60d6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $752,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $714,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $752,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a96…022fbacked Yes | 0c | 67,079$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 23c | 33,511$7,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,639.02 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 23,567$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.32 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…c1a1backed Yes | 7c | 20,439$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 16,084$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.06 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 11,956$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…b29fbacked Yes | 5c | 11,819$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 11c | 9,061$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.35 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 7,875$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.42 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 78c | 7,535$5,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…c67bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,324$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 6,482$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…03cabacked Yes | 16c | 6,330$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 5,201$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.67 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,061$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…916ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,690$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 14c | 4,678$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.96 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 7c | 4,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2737…8610backed Yes | 2c | 4,412$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…a5b7backed Yes | 3c | 4,121$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 25c | 4,048$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…e6dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,873$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 17c | 3,715$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.74 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…2c8bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,593$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,528$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,511$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…1c0abacked Yes | 2c | 3,335$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…d22ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,319$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef2…5ddebacked Yes | 22c | 3,231$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…2e9abacked Yes | 10c | 3,068$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…baf4backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,738$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8659backed Yes | 19c | 2,626$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,623$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,565$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +537.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 25c | 2,455$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…dd55backed Yes | 2c | 2,455$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebb…a464backed Yes | 1c | 2,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…04d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,275$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…0b2fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,254$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…4cd8backed Yes | 3c | 2,226$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 4c | 2,090$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 2,027$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.12 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…812fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,946$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…942dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,924$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,888$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…98b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 28c | 1,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed No | 80c | 1,689$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…ed68backed Yes | 3c | 1,653$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…0a0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 78c | 1,619$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…13f8backed Yes | 18c | 1,539$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…9a52backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,485$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…e71dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,477$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…d1eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,475$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…8b71backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,409$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 12c | 1,340$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c0efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 13c | 1,238$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…3dd4backed Yes | 8c | 1,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…f486backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead4…4845backed Yes | 20c | 1,198$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…49a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,188$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 24c | 1,120$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,118$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 70c | 1,090$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,087$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…8e44backed Yes | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 14c | 1,005$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…1012backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…bab0backed Yes | 2c | 975.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…fb24backed Yes | 3c | 947.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 14c | 900$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 71c | 859.43$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 17c | 813.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…bcacbacked Yes | 2c | 801.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…141ebacked Yes | 2c | 790.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 2c | 749.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 746.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…79b1backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc659…e925backed No | 73c | 709.98$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f05…43e7backed Yes | 3c | 669.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…9d84backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…288ebacked Yes | 3c | 648.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 24c | 638.61$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…0a8abacked Yes | 2c | 603.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 23c | 600$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Yes | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 3c | 591.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…c279backed Yes | 2c | 572.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51a…8aa2backed Yes | 2c | 564.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 6c | 550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.