TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x32c3…5dc5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$14.47
Spain to score first vs. Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
France vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$32.04
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$16.28
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$29.2
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+108.2%+$24.88
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+170.5%+$34.09
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.62
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$7.39
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+100.8%+$25.2
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$17.62
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+69.5%+$17.37
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.21
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.35
US congress stock trading ban in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+112.8%+$11.5
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19.7
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+40.8%+$4.49
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.78
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.19
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+52.8%+$10.56
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.31
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-84%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$290.71
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$8.86
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.83
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$38.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.