Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69aa83d5505e9940b8c13520fe7c39b95f3713bc7d6fcc2a31cbb322ee385495
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $594,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 20,231$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…9dd3backed Yes | 1c | 17,833$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…93c6backed Yes | 20c | 14,457$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…a70ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,675$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…31a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,590$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 7,507$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c3…86ccbacked Yes | 1c | 7,130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…7e42backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…0b53backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,168$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 20c | 6,095$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,072$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…5ebdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,716$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 5,693$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 1c | 5,448$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…0a13backed Yes | 4c | 5,140$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,648$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…5effbacked Yes | 5c | 4,480$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…05b2backed Yes | 1c | 4,052$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…2c12backed Yes | 0c | 4,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,834$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,813$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…df9cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,275$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 1c | 3,201$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,938$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…62cabacked Yes | 0c | 2,686$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f6…fb00backed Yes | 20c | 2,560$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…c27cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,379$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 13c | 2,368$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7f82backed Yes | 22c | 2,270$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…483cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…1494backed Yes | 4c | 1,841$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd49…ca83backed No | 79c | 1,728$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,486$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 1,477$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.86 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…ef18backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed Yes | 17c | 1,187$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…833bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,152$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd03…af6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 18c | 1,056$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed Yes | 20c | 1,016$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,004$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de8…2fc6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…9271backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd698…ba0dbacked Yes | 20c | 947.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 826.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 800$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…5ae9backed Yes | 20c | 782$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…ad98backed Yes | 21c | 764.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 79c | 763.01$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 10c | 761.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 18c | 761.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…4b34backed Yes | 21c | 752.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 19c | 750$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b1…0d49backed Yes | 19c | 745.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…3e65backed Yes | 10c | 744.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 21c | 737.59$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…6b75backed Yes | 18c | 704.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 10c | 700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…e5c3backed Yes | 20c | 671.43$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 599.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 13c | 594.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…bc70backed Yes | 20c | 589.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc783…61dcbacked Yes | 22c | 572.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dd…b936backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc3…a7b2backed Yes | 21c | 555.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ceb…4d90backed Yes | 21c | 536.41$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3feb…ceadbacked Yes | 19c | 531.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…7b2ebacked Yes | 22c | 522.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 20c | 510.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…6057backed Yes | 7c | 496.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…60bdbacked Yes | 20c | 492.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…3135backed Yes | 21c | 479.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…28e5backed Yes | 24c | 450$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 443$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…f45dbacked Yes | 21c | 440.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 12c | 431.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 19c | 425.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…c89abacked Yes | 21c | 385.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 373.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…b987backed Yes | 4c | 370.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…fdc0backed Yes | 25c | 367.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0d3ebacked Yes | 16c | 347.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…d79ebacked Yes | 22c | 344.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…913ebacked Yes | 21c | 342.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 24c | 336.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.