Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211d0ba286c543b49c1f27835405fc3f96d25f9a0ffbe3620382e112b3fddfdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $583,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $335,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $583,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25d…1ae4backed Yes | 1c | 96,950$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 2c | 42,459$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 23,927$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 1c | 22,000$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 21,185$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 0c | 16,717$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,551$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…5b69backed Yes | 0c | 6,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 0c | 6,662$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,367$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,349$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 0c | 5,591$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 3c | 5,014$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,503$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 1c | 4,111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,840$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…1ef2backed Yes | 8c | 3,786$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,420$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.44 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 3,391$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,385$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 1c | 3,140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,680$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d2…1b32backed Yes | 0c | 2,262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…4cb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…6dc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,892$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 3c | 1,852$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c3…5400backed Yes | 2c | 1,407$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,401$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 1c | 1,318$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 1c | 999.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 2c | 996.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…1a1ebacked Yes | 5c | 986.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 985.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 11c | 891.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 6c | 761.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…edd5backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…91dabacked Yes | 2c | 690.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 2c | 607.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 461$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 7c | 434.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Yes | 3c | 349.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 248.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.