Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700b422f79a08e5c31e6b05160cabb3d5e4f30f13d731c1a6056515e461a1f40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $933,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $715,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x720d…9a4dbacked Yes | 0c | 33,732$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 26,303$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.54 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 23,912$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…92cbbacked Yes | 1c | 15,689$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…b43ebacked Yes | 33c | 13,550$4,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…9554backed Yes | 21c | 13,231$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…6f14backed Yes | 18c | 11,521$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 26c | 11,045$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.63 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 29c | 8,872$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 8c | 8,518$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.13 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Yes | 27c | 8,511$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes | 3c | 8,342$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 21c | 7,341$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 3c | 7,306$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1e…6c48backed Yes | 58c | 6,926$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…d5babacked No | 67c | 6,800$4,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…c0e2backed Yes | 25c | 6,795$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…be63backed No | 67c | 6,750$4,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Yes | 0c | 6,502$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 17c | 6,408$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 6,371$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.88 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…3617backed Yes | 15c | 4,872$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 11c | 4,574$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 19c | 4,309$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 6c | 4,281$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a11cbacked Yes | 27c | 4,084$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 16c | 4,015$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…716fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 70c | 3,944$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 8c | 3,815$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.85 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,799$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…b029backed Yes | 1c | 3,673$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…3dc7backed Yes | 12c | 3,594$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…d569backed Yes | 31c | 3,463$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 25c | 3,433$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.55 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 25c | 3,402$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 15c | 3,373$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 15c | 3,207$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 11c | 3,184$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…9ad8backed Yes | 19c | 3,162$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 3,095$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.61 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,053$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,931$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.6 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 1c | 2,921$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 2c | 2,917$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,908$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,802$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 73c | 2,800$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…f9aabacked Yes | 9c | 2,761$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 39c | 2,716$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…6130backed Yes | 75c | 2,660$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 1c | 2,657$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,639$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 39c | 2,589$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…fb63backed Yes | 3c | 2,570$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 2,523$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.08 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,461$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 61c | 2,455$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,412$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0092…31f2backed Yes | 25c | 2,370$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 2,257$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.74 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd922…dee9backed Yes | 15c | 2,192$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 15c | 2,109$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…42eebacked Yes | 13c | 2,083$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…30a6backed Yes | 20c | 2,065$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…2c12backed Yes | 0c | 2,059$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…9533backed Yes | 25c | 2,011$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…60bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,937$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 10c | 1,907$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…9a15backed Yes | 73c | 1,904$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 17c | 1,896$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…6bdebacked Yes | 65c | 1,844$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 26c | 1,832$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa670…5c49backed Yes | 3c | 1,773$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 24c | 1,756$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 18c | 1,687$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.1 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 4c | 1,666$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 1,665$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.89 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes | 31c | 1,635$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…a2febacked Yes | 68c | 1,600$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 40c | 1,572$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 33c | 1,524$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 1,512$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.55 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…a1a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…cb4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,491$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…d5afbacked Yes | 69c | 1,459$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…2dd5backed Yes | 14c | 1,444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 24c | 1,422$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 1,422$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.54 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,401$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 36c | 1,392$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 3c | 1,376$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 46c | 1,354$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 74c | 1,353$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed Yes | 15c | 1,344$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 26c | 1,333$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 4c | 1,249$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,245$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.