TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$933,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$715,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x720d…9a4dbacked Yes0c33,732$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c26,303$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.544712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes21c23,912$5,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,002.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c0…92cbbacked Yes1c15,689$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fd…b43ebacked Yes33c13,550$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,505.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…9554backed Yes21c13,231$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4145…6f14backed Yes18c11,521$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes26c11,045$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.63140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb169…b67abacked Yes29c8,872$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.641010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes8c8,518$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.139018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x725f…c932backed Yes27c8,511$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.8860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes3c8,342$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes21c7,341$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.370%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes3c7,306$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.81825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe1e…6c48backed Yes58c6,926$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…d5babacked No67c6,800$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e7…c0e2backed Yes25c6,795$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…be63backed No67c6,750$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Yes0c6,502$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes17c6,408$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.05714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes17c6,371$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.882810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c54…3617backed Yes15c4,872$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Yes11c4,574$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes19c4,309$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes6c4,281$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.532927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a11cbacked Yes27c4,084$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes16c4,015$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…716fbacked Yes15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No70c3,944$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.32429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes8c3,815$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.852227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes17c3,799$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6e…b029backed Yes1c3,673$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df4…3dc7backed Yes12c3,594$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04de…d569backed Yes31c3,463$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes25c3,433$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.555131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes25c3,402$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.112548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes15c3,373$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.321241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes15c3,207$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.461020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes11c3,184$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.582330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7c…9ad8backed Yes19c3,162$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c3,095$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.613187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes9c3,053$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.84728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes13c2,931$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.66829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes1c2,921$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.421127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes2c2,917$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.35166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf657…108ebacked Yes17c2,908$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c2,802$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.59362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes73c2,800$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc89…f9aabacked Yes9c2,761$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes39c2,716$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.132015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes75c2,660$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes1c2,657$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes3c2,639$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.98728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes39c2,589$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.171915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-79.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7339…fb63backed Yes3c2,570$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c2,523$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.0818135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes13c2,461$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.231127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes61c2,455$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.154936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c2,412$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.86616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0092…31f2backed Yes25c2,370$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes16c2,257$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.746516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd922…dee9backed Yes15c2,192$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes15c2,109$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0247…42eebacked Yes13c2,083$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9a4…30a6backed Yes20c2,065$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b26…2c12backed Yes0c2,059$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73c…9533backed Yes25c2,011$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xece7…60bdbacked Yes26c1,937$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5400…1342backed Yes10c1,907$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.95150%0 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f51…9a15backed Yes73c1,904$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes17c1,896$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e72…6bdebacked Yes65c1,844$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes26c1,832$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa670…5c49backed Yes3c1,773$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes24c1,756$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.431533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No18c1,687$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.14037.5%15 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+211.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes4c1,666$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No60c1,665$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.894050%20 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes31c1,635$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c7…a2febacked Yes68c1,600$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked No40c1,572$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes33c1,524$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes19c1,512$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.557226.4%19 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes13c1,500$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.52626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be9…a1a7backed Yes9c1,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b0…cb4cbacked Yes3c1,491$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…d5afbacked Yes69c1,459$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb92…2dd5backed Yes14c1,444$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes24c1,422$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+168.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c1,422$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.545034%17 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes27c1,401$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes36c1,392$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes3c1,376$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.781637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes46c1,354$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.451216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes74c1,353$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf473…a595backed Yes15c1,344$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked Yes26c1,333$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes4c1,249$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.823023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9885…210ebacked Yes11c1,245$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.37100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.