Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1f111ef03daf045896e26beb18882cf99b80f5ffb07b525ff8242d2bad47944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $671,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $548,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $671,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 568 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x516c…7082backed Yes | 37c | 60,256$22,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,294.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…70ddbacked No | 63c | 60,256$37,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,294.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 48,164$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.01 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 11,487$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 4c | 11,247$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 6c | 10,209$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 8,088$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.42 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…3b95backed Yes | 10c | 8,049$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,940$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.29 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 17c | 6,699$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 4c | 6,652$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…3dc7backed Yes | 22c | 5,877$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 6c | 5,851$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 26c | 5,728$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 22c | 5,293$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.7 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 17c | 5,133$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…1a2dbacked Yes | 23c | 4,831$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 7c | 4,679$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908f…35a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 9c | 3,821$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,999$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,800$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 70c | 2,790$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,786$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed Yes | 4c | 2,657$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 14c | 2,627$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.55 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 1c | 2,616$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 2,140$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 3c | 1,923$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,863$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.14 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,732$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.92 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…2c12backed Yes | 1c | 1,688$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 21c | 1,460$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,311$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 79c | 1,221$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…cca5backed Yes | 20c | 1,198$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,156$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…5e41backed Yes | 27c | 1,117$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 1,104$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…23c7backed Yes | 19c | 1,091$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…0091backed Yes | 20c | 1,050$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…fbe4backed Yes | 23c | 1,047$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 8c | 999.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…e8acbacked Yes | 4c | 987.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc5…748bbacked Yes | 23c | 974.4$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 22c | 971.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…6021backed Yes | 19c | 946.1$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 37c | 944.72$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…5082backed Yes | 21c | 926.68$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…fe73backed Yes | 2c | 921.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…280abacked Yes | 19c | 855.48$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 850$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9294…d4d5backed Yes | 22c | 849.9$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 843.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d5…bad9backed Yes | 21c | 824.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8922backed Yes | 23c | 814.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 811.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 21c | 811.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…9284backed Yes | 21c | 801.16$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…c27cbacked No | 78c | 800$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…7492backed Yes | 27c | 774.31$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 5c | 766.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…1166backed Yes | 19c | 763.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 37c | 762$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 8c | 761.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 20c | 759.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 748.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…1fa9backed Yes | 24c | 734.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…a925backed Yes | 21c | 719.83$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…9a54backed Yes | 23c | 714.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…4268backed Yes | 23c | 709.01$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…5e72backed Yes | 22c | 686.94$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…b404backed Yes | 24c | 685.13$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3b…40c3backed Yes | 22c | 677.53$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…ccb9backed Yes | 19c | 676.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…ed67backed Yes | 21c | 658.75$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8f03backed No | 76c | 655.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…8e76backed Yes | 25c | 654.31$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…4ebebacked Yes | 22c | 637.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked No | 79c | 634.28$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 77c | 632$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…6ce1backed Yes | 21c | 619.63$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…3b5ebacked Yes | 23c | 610.48$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 78c | 607.98$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6b…cfdbbacked Yes | 21c | 605.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…10a2backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 19cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…4586backed Yes | 21c | 599.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…4b48backed Yes | 22c | 598.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 597.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…fd11backed Yes | 22c | 591.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 19c | 591.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c97…71b6backed Yes | 22c | 590.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…059dbacked Yes | 23c | 590.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.