Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d5b50fd0bc5013be79a7cdb4b3f0917127071cf27a324804c030f6eb06f5b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,264,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,295,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,264,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,664 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed No | 50c | 158,741$78,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,990.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 35c | 94,460$33,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,094.39 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 38c | 56,394$21,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,333.1 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 71c | 40,051$28,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,285.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 51c | 37,488$19,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,429.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…bd73backed No | 60c | 37,230$22,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,448.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 52c | 35,575$18,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,032.33 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 40c | 34,872$13,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,905.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 11c | 32,906$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,547.67 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 40c | 32,559$13,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,481.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 33c | 28,287$9,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,849.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 15c | 27,563$4,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 26,442$9,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,363.23 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 52c | 25,256$13,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,232.31 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 43c | 22,038$9,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,553.11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 13c | 21,218$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 4c | 18,930$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 64c | 18,918$12,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,172.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 41c | 18,768$7,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,065.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed No | 71c | 18,694$13,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,252.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…c001backed No | 2c | 18,067$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 26c | 16,748$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 37c | 16,167$5,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,192.2 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…ac22backed Yes | 41c | 14,709$6,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,645.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 4c | 14,152$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 12,526$4,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,666.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 44c | 12,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,780 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 53c | 11,900$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,646.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 43c | 11,746$5,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,719.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 35c | 11,594$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,565.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 55c | 10,995$6,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,909.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 56c | 10,722$6,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,717.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 14c | 10,669$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 29c | 10,116$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,182.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 18c | 10,090$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.22 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 17c | 10,044$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.11 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 38c | 10,010$3,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,194.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 47c | 9,641$4,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 24c | 9,626$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 42c | 9,500$4,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,495.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…3dc7backed No | 58c | 9,279$5,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,394.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 20c | 9,163$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,330.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 65c | 9,162$5,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,992.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed No | 38c | 9,130$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 50c | 9,032$4,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,553.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 45c | 8,628$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,753.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 80c | 8,622$6,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.05 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 41c | 8,000$3,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 52c | 7,584$3,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,943.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 53c | 7,463$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…b029backed No | 1c | 7,376$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 41c | 7,371$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,321.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 69c | 7,310$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 32c | 7,000$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 30c | 6,755$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,728.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 39c | 6,733$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 67c | 6,618$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 31c | 6,604$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,582.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 40c | 6,568$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,940.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed Yes | 79c | 6,480$5,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 26c | 6,188$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.28 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes | 38c | 6,184$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,836.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…fb93backed No | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 45c | 5,672$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 31c | 5,618$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,890.43 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 62c | 5,563$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 48c | 5,307$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 5,130$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 12c | 5,111$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked No | 27c | 5,091$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 36c | 5,000$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,225 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 63c | 4,908$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked No | 57c | 4,890$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 43c | 4,830$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 25c | 4,771$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 32c | 4,746$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 42c | 4,651$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.06 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 57c | 4,564$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked No | 56c | 4,537$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 43c | 4,512$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.22 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 71c | 4,500$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 56c | 4,477$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 19c | 4,454$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.24 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 47c | 4,444$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 28c | 4,416$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 29c | 4,356$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,113.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 38c | 4,336$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 35c | 4,298$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 13c | 4,283$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 33c | 4,265$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes | 42c | 4,236$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 35c | 4,198$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 11c | 4,181$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.95 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 57c | 4,131$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.69 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 55c | 4,128$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 65c | 3,979$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked No | 19c | 3,972$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.