TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf02f…ff23

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT8355.4%46 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 83 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nationals vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.65
Cubs vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$108.65
Royals vs. Guardiansbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.35
Dodgers vs. Piratesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$120.95
Mariners vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$108.64
Blue Jays vs. Redsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$96.35
Dodgers vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$127.1
Guardians vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$63.55
Marlins vs. Nationalsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.35
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.88
Marlins vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$82.08
Mariners vs. Guardiansbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.28
Rays vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.72
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$37
Marlins vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.99
Braves vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$117
Cubs vs. Giantsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Tigers vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$48.17
Cubs vs. Giantsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Reds vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$74
Angels vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$82
Royals vs. White Soxbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$20.58
Diamondbacks vs. Brewersbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$114
Twins vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$76
Pirates vs. Cardinalsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$124
Showing 25 of 83 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$247.99
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+47.1%+$160
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$443.99
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$640
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$435
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$816Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$816
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+151.8%+$463.59
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$389.66
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.46
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,185Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$315
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,993Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,992.76
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,975
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,979.99
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$876Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+48.4%+$424
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,912Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$1,711.35
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$58
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Carolina vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+37%+$216
Appalachian State vs. Charlottebacked Charlotte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.24
Kennesaw State vs. Wake Forestbacked Kennesaw State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Nebraska vs. Cincinnatibacked Cincinnati · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 4 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mercury vs Acesbacked Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.5
Lynx vs Dreambacked Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.8
Mystics vs Sunbacked Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vikings vs. Bearsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$100.45
Patriots vs. Giants backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$408
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$116
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,830Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$1,170
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.