TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Vikings vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vikingsof Vikings, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,649,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,037,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,649,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 570 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Bears50c448,951$223,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,997.9217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Vikings50c437,970$218,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218,985.113259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Vikings50c397,403$200,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197,382.171741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bears58c278,859$161,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,162.8830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Vikings48c188,062$90,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,980.4347738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Vikings73c169,742$124,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,521.6212144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb06…d915backed Bears50c159,216$80,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Vikings34c143,143$48,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,983.2222950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Bears48c126,309$60,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,6662040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Vikings50c119,964$59,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,983.087554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bears64c103,009$65,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,826.2822548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Vikings51c93,600$47,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,8641915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Vikings51c66,520$34,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,325.3530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Bears47c56,028$26,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,393.6416836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Bears70c51,038$35,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,615.8710566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Bears67c40,224$26,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,871.959445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Bears63c37,701$23,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,636.018648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Vikings30c32,267$9,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,697.9868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears68c26,273$17,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,897.1114349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Bears50c25,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5006734.3%23 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Bears48c24,188$11,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,607.76645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Vikings52c21,000$10,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,080.037035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears55c20,147$11,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,166.8114351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bears53c19,686$10,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,503.3419645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Vikings34c19,565$6,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,894.313430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Vikings51c17,883$9,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,829.6114342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Vikings51c17,391$8,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,531.9944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Vikings22c15,225$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,820.326544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Vikings65c14,539$9,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,070.9219551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears49c12,700$6,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,22383147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Vikings52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,76026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Vikings60c11,360$6,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Vikings30c11,257$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,861.2312138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3d…35d0backed Vikings49c10,949$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,545.131080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Bears26c10,915$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.49944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Vikings53c10,899$5,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,122.7331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb61…6d7bbacked Bears49c10,845$5,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,302.341050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Vikings52c10,577$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,076.9218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Bears5c10,201$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.032626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Vikings29c10,000$2,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,147.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Bears69c8,495$5,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,861.555048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Vikings60c8,451$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.811952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Vikings33c8,222$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,536.536550.8%33 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Bears50c7,500$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75024738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bears47c7,370$3,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,456.998343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bears26c7,292$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.161148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Bears48c7,090$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.2933328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Bears70c6,864$4,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.5424551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Bears74c6,618$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.8211755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Vikings30c6,541$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,608.3920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Bears63c6,242$3,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,947.984553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Bears64c6,206$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.412744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe604…d999backed Vikings10c6,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+170.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Vikings41c5,624$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff7…ae3cbacked Bears48c5,555$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Vikings50c5,297$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.3329356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Vikings52c5,131$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.8753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Vikings26c5,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,70011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Bears47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3503652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bears73c4,948$3,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.4327348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Bears47c4,625$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.752951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Bears48c4,259$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.127339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa408…06ffbacked Vikings54c4,233$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bears70c4,214$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.9631848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Bears48c4,058$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.031637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Bears75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0327…1390backed Vikings52c3,826$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Vikings45c3,760$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.2531056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ba…f893backed Bears50c3,644$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…da5dbacked Bears69c3,621$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.7440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Vikings31c3,502$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.688921.3%19 W · 70 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Bears50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Bears55c3,483$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.084436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x296a…125fbacked Vikings52c3,455$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefaa…0af8backed Vikings52c3,441$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Bears75c3,262$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.4114355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d86…2182backed Vikings50c3,260$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6303100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bears50c3,075$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.528447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Vikings53c3,000$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41930446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Vikings51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4703043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c56…68b2backed Bears50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vikings61c2,919$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.7364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Vikings48c2,802$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.0114926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Bears60c2,704$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.243417.6%6 W · 28 L-6.5wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Bears59c2,697$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6008349.4%41 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears58c2,654$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.7741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Vikings51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d8…655abacked Bears49c2,458$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd8…4bf1backed Vikings33c2,437$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.211384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+55.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9cb9…d4f3backed Vikings52c2,413$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Bears48c2,279$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.33432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Vikings51c2,255$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.94957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cfd…9227backed Bears50c2,220$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699d…7b47backed Vikings13c2,202$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.022931%9 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Bears48c2,200$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06613145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bears48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf209…97e1backed Bears48c2,081$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings52c2,053$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.821,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Bears2c2,035$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.871128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Bears50c2,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9902259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.