NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb007234d43dad4711d20a80cf6ed6b854eb362551284bda647b1abf2adefd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc46f…2003backed Vikings | 49c | 20,433$10,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,420.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Vikings | 49c | 19,951$9,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,175 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 49c | 12,519$6,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,172.85 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Vikings | 51c | 11,137$5,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,457.13 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Bears | 51c | 11,133$5,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,698.62 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 51c | 9,761$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Vikings | 47c | 8,637$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,577.45 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears | 51c | 7,315$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.33 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 51c | 5,233$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.83 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Bears | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Bears | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Vikings | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.98 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bears | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.03 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Bears | 50c | 2,300$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Vikings | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bears | 49c | 1,859$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.76 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Vikings | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Bears | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Bears | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Vikings | 47c | 940$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.2 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Bears | 52c | 913.31$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.92 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 51c | 896.95$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.44 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Vikings | 48c | 727.06$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Vikings | 6c | 707.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.4 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bears | 55c | 686.54$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.74 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Bears | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Vikings | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bears | 51c | 478.96$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.19 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Vikings | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Bears | 53c | 378$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…6e6dbacked Vikings | 50c | 300.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Vikings | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Vikings | 50c | 236.9$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Vikings | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Vikings | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Bears | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vikings | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Vikings | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 50c | 140.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Vikings | 50c | 128.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Vikings | 51c | 110.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Vikings | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Bears | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Bears | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Vikings | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Vikings | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…b14cbacked Bears | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8170…ae5dbacked Vikings | 40c | 49.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Bears | 60c | 49.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Vikings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Vikings | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…e6e7backed Vikings | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…60bdbacked Bears | 52c | 44.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Vikings | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bears | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Vikings | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Bears | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Vikings | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df4…113dbacked Bears | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Vikings | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Bears | 55c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Vikings | 45c | 25.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…fda4backed Bears | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Bears | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)this page
- Vikings vs. BearsVikings won
- Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.