TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x39b6…e6e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Tennis at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST2748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+98.2%+$78.59
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+61.8%+$49.41
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$23.17
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+59.8%+$11.96
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+51.4%+$20.55
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$45.72
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$16.67
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$13.46
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Christian McCaffrey be the Top Fantasy Running Back for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+316.8%+$79.2
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19.39
Seahawks vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$23.67
Eagles vs. Vikingsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$15.34
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$22.1
Will Christian McCaffrey record the most fantasy points in Week 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Spread: Broncos (-7.5)backed Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$22.17
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$28.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $220 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.