TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$665,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$661,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $665,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 883 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09c1…6d08backed Yes26c36,173$9,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,463.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…feb5backed Yes27c31,116$8,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,554.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c18,017$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8410426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c13,840$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.655113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No79c12,987$10,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No75c11,000$8,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No51c10,138$5,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940.731650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9935…ff83backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes28c9,761$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.7619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Yes1c9,545$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.721330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c9,403$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.151491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No55c7,458$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,336.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,874$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.371,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…8a4ebacked Yes1c6,575$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b5…93b8backed Yes1c6,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No39c5,740$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,492.767219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed No68c5,490$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.73520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed No76c5,000$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1901100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c4,820$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.3945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No54c4,471$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.7814250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No70c4,393$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.853151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d50…1baebacked Yes1c4,059$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+140%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2475…a2b2backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes58c3,869$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.9160%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1974…29edbacked No57c3,663$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.02333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes59c3,568$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.562128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No71c3,448$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5d…4197backed Yes30c3,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes26c2,766$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.188220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes28c2,713$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d86…2182backed No75c2,700$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed No72c2,695$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.341376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c2,645$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed No63c2,453$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb192…cc5cbacked Yes54c2,442$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes59c2,279$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed Yes35c2,237$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7881250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No50c2,200$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes41c2,187$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No72c2,174$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.47636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd0…4516backed No50c2,154$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.181250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed No78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8f2…b74abacked Yes32c1,991$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes50c1,966$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08f2…d5d5backed Yes39c1,875$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b6…0838backed Yes1c1,865$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes13c1,846$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes44c1,835$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked No72c1,824$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes45c1,811$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.0712839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes50c1,766$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed No54c1,676$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.321030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes50c1,644$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.463438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf950…81d1backed Yes1c1,613$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes38c1,585$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.662835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No60c1,583$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.112626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72d3…97ccbacked Yes30c1,563$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No76c1,547$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.4110338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes51c1,530$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.064134.1%14 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes34c1,502$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.455111.8%6 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x925c…fb35backed No76c1,481$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes38c1,475$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.492128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb600…59f1backed No70c1,427$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c02…2b85backed No58c1,407$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes57c1,396$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.141020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9315…f364backed Yes72c1,395$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes23c1,373$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.443411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9327…aa02backed Yes68c1,352$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes65c1,348$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked No72c1,337$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.741070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes52c1,335$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.482944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ae…f72fbacked Yes31c1,331$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdf…eda3backed No77c1,302$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes43c1,283$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.6725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa03e…269bbacked No79c1,269$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes52c1,245$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.111838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed No66c1,229$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Yes36c1,225$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fa…8fc4backed No72c1,200$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4178…bb11backed Yes48c1,179$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3905…6022backed Yes33c1,177$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.3750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe81d…16bfbacked No60c1,165$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccb4…ac9cbacked No69c1,162$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No54c1,161$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes25c1,134$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.173030%9 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e0…167ebacked Yes61c1,121$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes29c1,113$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes37c1,108$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.8813654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c31…95e9backed No74c1,108$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes65c1,101$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.622138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c1,093$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes32c1,069$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+178.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed No54c1,060$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.321546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed Yes71c1,030$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.062236.4%8 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c4…812fbacked No63c985.89$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No73c979.33$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.422040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes78c976.3$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5597…7a47backed Yes46c950.48$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc184…4cc0backed Yes32c947.58$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.