TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6021…31a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$304
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$298.6
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.78
Will Elon tag @realDonaldTrump on X in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.89
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.34
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+117.1%+$809
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$97.78
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+102%+$773.93
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.6
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,077Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+64.7%+$696.46
US tariffs on European cars before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+107.7%+$1,036.92
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$39.48
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$790.14
Will iPhone 17 cost more than $800?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$509.14
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.83
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$402.83
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+205.3%+$276.67
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.04
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,153Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,152.68
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.8
Mariners vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$41.4
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+81.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.5
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+135.6%+$40.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$255
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.