TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce21…d5f5backed Yes42c37,451$15,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,729.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa791…8b9dbacked No58c37,451$21,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,729.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c23,498$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.924315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes45c15,343$6,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.17850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes0c14,018$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes0c10,346$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.313935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+94.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes13c7,523$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.291323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes0c7,133$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes15c3,815$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.243823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f8…0930backed Yes15c3,654$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes0c3,538$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,569$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1715615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c2,397$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes3c2,248$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.691816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes13c2,171$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.041020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,088$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.22560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes68c2,020$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes22c2,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked Yes6c1,727$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.270%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes4c1,539$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes5c1,528$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes9c1,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9912636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.993426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,441$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.141,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc404…1af8backed Yes30c1,421$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8600…db1ebacked Yes2c1,339$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed Yes33c1,201$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c03…8b7bbacked No75c1,172$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c1,136$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.912110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes25c999.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes10c999.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes12c959.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes9c933.37$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.584020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6476…0a70backed Yes19c916.09$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes12c855.73$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.993221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No12c840.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.462420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c799.99$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34445738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c700.57$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes11c700$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.63333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c687.05$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes55c633.36$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed Yes34c513.43$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1741225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed Yes75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1804…90c9backed Yes23c492.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+300.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes40c453.89$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5611030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes9c452$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.681330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes5c431.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes9c410.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Yes37c410$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes5c404.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.212623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9810…f117backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0da…ff63backed Yes3c395.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No46c372.03$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2022642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+99.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes4c342.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes20c332.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No43c302.71$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.961866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Yes23c300$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes13c281.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6625122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c267.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ef…899abacked Yes23c263.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Yes28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked Yes66c246.48$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.731752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No32c242$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16510338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9e…535ebacked Yes31c233.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes26c233.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8521125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes31c224.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3419834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9359…b49fbacked Yes11c218.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc7…2035backed Yes16c217.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0343…2ecdbacked Yes58c214.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed Yes28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9e…8cd4backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes13c199.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b2…6ec0backed Yes72c198.42$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.86540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe610…f8d8backed Yes26c195.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4685…fe25backed Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No39c171.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.812657.7%15 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No25c167.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9528828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No67c162.79$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5318544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No35c160$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.086659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes21c155.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9473…3b20backed Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…da88backed No34c140$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…a493backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa1…dc77backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7db…7cbebacked Yes58c112.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcb…c5bebacked Yes61c107.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d9d…35c4backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed No12c94.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.121952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4093…4137backed Yes68c88.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked Yes59c84.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No32c83.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb0…28b5backed Yes69c77.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd357…d80fbacked Yes65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4a…5ad8backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.