TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$714,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $714,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes23c39,439$9,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,106.443823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes15c33,185$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08d8…bb1bbacked Yes45c31,850$14,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,459.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3394…2373backed No55c31,850$17,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,459.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes44c31,331$13,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,896.573525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes38c23,298$8,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,906.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes64c23,093$14,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,858.0260%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes26c14,234$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.68560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes48c13,044$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,234.871330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes18c11,835$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.351566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0df9…6b44backed Yes7c9,470$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3a…0d29backed Yes45c6,784$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes33c6,414$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,390$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.575813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes55c6,305$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,440742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…4036backed Yes64c5,874$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,747.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes28c5,148$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.022560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.64922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes19c4,503$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.624146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb45…d6babacked Yes50c4,483$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9266…7562backed No67c4,452$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.81785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc404…1af8backed Yes39c4,012$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes16c3,916$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.862110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14af…52e5backed Yes38c3,716$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No58c3,668$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.763060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes22c3,659$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b5…d7adbacked Yes3c3,592$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4126backed Yes4c3,352$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick13cpaid+256.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked Yes37c3,285$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No64c3,196$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.015635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes8c3,113$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7224315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0f…2433backed Yes31c3,100$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No53c3,100$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4712623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes30c3,093$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.371910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe58…ee71backed Yes48c3,021$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No58c2,957$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.44020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes36c2,914$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes4c2,808$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.692326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Yes59c2,651$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c2,600$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.8557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,595$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.521,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes47c2,504$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.022429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes49c2,500$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.871020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…77ecbacked Yes26c2,467$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes8c2,442$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.061428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes24c2,409$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No75c2,323$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes5c2,158$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,113$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6715615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04d…12d3backed Yes66c2,106$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2e…c986backed No78c2,000$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes5c2,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…f241backed Yes51c1,921$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a3…e236backed Yes4c1,819$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf374…aa4dbacked Yes34c1,783$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a0…f0efbacked Yes1c1,776$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes29c1,762$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.692948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes67c1,699$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.46887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b9…4267backed Yes62c1,654$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes78c1,648$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No54c1,636$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes31c1,551$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.262722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes40c1,472$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes4c1,393$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.139435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c1,353$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c1,323$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.221051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes23c1,303$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes66c1,300$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa074…f1c9backed Yes8c1,237$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843c…8405backed Yes57c1,207$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes11c1,135$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.572015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes24c1,134$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e3…d432backed Yes41c1,132$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d1…e590backed Yes61c1,105$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes28c1,071$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.11650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafe2…074fbacked Yes31c1,056$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes35c1,034$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe061…1befbacked Yes2c1,032$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes26c1,009$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9810…f117backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes44c991.41$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes40c966.14$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.44137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b5e…f157backed Yes31c946.7$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…79d3backed Yes64c932.16$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes7c900.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes34c876.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…2ae8backed No74c869.2$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.38580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ac…e7edbacked Yes31c864.91$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes42c852.09$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.412642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c780.78$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab74…1b45backed No64c779.65$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes11c772.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3619834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf526…35b1backed No72c764.68$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6476…0a70backed Yes5c763.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3580%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bc…63dabacked Yes53c760.16$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes5c759.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.082657.7%15 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x981b…ffecbacked Yes69c754.76$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…ea6cbacked Yes34c728.9$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.