TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7fe6…b39e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,387Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.7%+$684.61
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$8,258Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+25.2%+$2,079.87
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$1,079.97
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$220
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$843Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$843.1
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$137.45
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,966Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+67.6%+$2,682.68
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$3,675.62
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,342Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$2,341.79
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$632.21
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$999.98
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$738Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+266.2%+$1,964.82
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,575Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$6,574.61
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10,268Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+41.7%+$4,277.33
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,680Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+59.6%+$1,598.34
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14,810Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+41.4%+$6,126.33
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,266Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$2,266.05
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$8,595Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+152.1%+$13,072
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+112.2%+$94.47
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+42.7%+$346.37
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$6,661Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$3,003.42
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.24
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.88
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.6wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-58.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,120
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,400
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,077.18
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,309.99
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$960
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$4,284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,283.53
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,644Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,644
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$3,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,600
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,540Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,540
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$210
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,746Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+45.1%+$1,237.18
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$270
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$323.61
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,064.61
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,242Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+44.1%+$989.15
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,030.17
2025 September second hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+591.2%+$806.33
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$354
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,186Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$1,234.87
2025 August third hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$353.02
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in June 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,903.92
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.33
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,252Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+96.3%+$2,169.97
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.14ºC in June 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.24
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+80.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+71.5%+$41.7
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+68.8%+$68.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$182
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,440
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$69
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+248.4%+$249.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+27.7%+$65.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pirates vs. Brewersbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,109.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.