Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc762fc53518021f2e07ac63aa8e87ca9232fec4f8dd9d5aa9fc8a711a456bd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $792,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $794,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $792,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7018…a7eabacked No | 61c | 61,135$37,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,842.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…ff77backed Yes | 39c | 61,135$23,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,842.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d15dbacked No | 54c | 39,767$21,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,292.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…0ed6backed Yes | 46c | 39,767$18,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,292.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…2904backed No | 52c | 33,206$17,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,938.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…c765backed Yes | 48c | 33,206$15,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,938.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7729backed Yes | 53c | 31,830$16,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,869.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…0404backed No | 47c | 31,830$14,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,869.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…1033backed No | 53c | 31,483$16,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,797.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b7…5400backed Yes | 47c | 31,483$14,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,797.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…7c57backed Yes | 57c | 31,027$17,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,685.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…682bbacked No | 43c | 31,027$13,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,685.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…a7b0backed Yes | 52c | 28,387$14,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,761.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…ff49backed No | 48c | 28,387$13,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,761.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…0e7abacked No | 60c | 26,461$15,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,584.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x826f…6e3dbacked Yes | 40c | 26,461$10,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,584.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 34c | 7,946$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.74 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 52c | 5,824$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.03 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 48c | 5,248$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.66 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 27c | 5,212$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 44c | 4,563$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.63 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,220$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.82 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 41c | 4,034$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.45 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 65c | 3,818$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.37 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 58c | 3,272$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.75 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 31c | 3,269$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.95 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 2,854$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.88 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 2,117$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…8402backed Yes | 34c | 2,073$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,071$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 44c | 1,832$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.74 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 62c | 1,666$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.44 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 1,665$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.36 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 37c | 1,644$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.47 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 24c | 1,636$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.37 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,569$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 72c | 1,534$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.17 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes | 36c | 1,485$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 51c | 1,480$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.91 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 55c | 1,375$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.62 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,341$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 50c | 1,337$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.98 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 19c | 1,299$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 51c | 1,275$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.19 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,231$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…3235backed No | 64c | 1,178$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 30c | 1,150$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.15 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 17c | 1,142$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed Yes | 63c | 1,132$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,083$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.96 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 41c | 1,063$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.06 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 46c | 1,020$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.72 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,018$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 20c | 994.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 42c | 991.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.08 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 52c | 943$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 80c | 915.46$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed No | 55c | 908.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…15b7backed Yes | 33c | 906.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 75c | 899.99$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 74c | 876.24$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.78 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked No | 50c | 835.05$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.63 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 43c | 801.3$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.81 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 35c | 797.72$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.61 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 50c | 759.96$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.64 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 45c | 751.79$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.19 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 55c | 749.51$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.44 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 72c | 738.85$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 51c | 729.21$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.57 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 50c | 719.98$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.59 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 21c | 719.84$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 39c | 708.42$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.12 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 68c | 700$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 44c | 698.64$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 76c | 679.76$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 63c | 674.12$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.62 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 25c | 664.68$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 662.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed No | 61c | 661.83$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 63c | 649.16$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 47c | 648.94$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.89 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 48c | 624.88$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 52c | 573.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 34c | 562.92$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 54c | 555.27$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.77 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 544.36$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 50c | 535.87$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 534$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…19e4backed No | 47c | 526.68$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 76c | 521.42$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 39c | 514.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.13 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 34c | 513.72$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 54c | 505.74$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.1 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked No | 60c | 503.89$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.