Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ddd13cfdf09792af521ed5f6ce576a4f25fe1c06e3b4ae971cb3bbf1b46f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $861,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $827,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $861,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked Yes | 65c | 52,728$34,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,273.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…af98backed No | 35c | 52,728$18,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,273.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…2fabbacked No | 38c | 51,217$19,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,754.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…ec65backed Yes | 62c | 51,217$31,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,754.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…8358backed Yes | 52c | 40,833$21,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,233.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f4…b0bfbacked No | 48c | 40,833$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,233.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…d5cebacked No | 52c | 36,133$18,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,343.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…dfdabacked Yes | 48c | 36,133$17,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,343.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…ff49backed Yes | 44c | 31,237$13,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,744.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…d28cbacked No | 56c | 31,237$17,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,744.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…3e89backed No | 60c | 30,477$18,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,190.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3253…03f9backed Yes | 40c | 30,477$12,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,190.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…5873backed Yes | 46c | 28,622$13,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,166.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…2393backed No | 54c | 28,622$15,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,166.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91e…e3c1backed No | 55c | 26,137$14,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,761.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…d7a5backed Yes | 45c | 26,137$11,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,761.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 16,343$4,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,933.42 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 15c | 13,554$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.6 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 62c | 11,238$7,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 28c | 9,599$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 8c | 8,872$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.37 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 50c | 7,053$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.79 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 23c | 6,921$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.29 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 17c | 6,226$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.85 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 47c | 6,070$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed No | 44c | 6,029$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 25c | 5,876$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.25 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 28c | 5,660$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.99 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 73c | 4,176$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 19c | 4,061$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.3 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 53c | 3,522$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.69 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 64c | 3,345$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.69 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 16c | 3,083$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.71 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,655$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,651$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.18 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…08f9backed No | 38c | 2,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 2,508$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.93 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 15c | 2,501$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 48c | 2,454$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.08 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 52c | 2,282$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.69 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 20c | 2,250$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 46c | 2,191$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.4 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,168$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,920$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,738$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 3c | 1,598$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 1,574$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,565$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,546$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 14c | 1,170$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 70c | 1,122$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.47 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 57c | 1,122$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 15c | 1,110$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 1,107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.13 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 25c | 1,098$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.47 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…5015backed Yes | 33c | 905.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 5c | 883.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 862.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 15c | 861.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 836.44$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.45 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 35c | 821.66$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.21 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 58c | 812.38$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.94 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 23c | 800$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 20c | 741.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 28c | 731.15$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.1 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 47c | 724.24$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.85 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 4c | 709.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 38c | 692.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 671.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed Yes | 22c | 669.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 646.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 44c | 625.43$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.17 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 23c | 613.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked No | 66c | 610.7$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 61c | 600.59$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes | 8c | 571$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…5761backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 23c | 433.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…2b42backed Yes | 60c | 433.33$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…c4e4backed Yes | 7c | 414.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 56c | 414.17$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 409.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 70c | 409$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 393.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f823backed No | 48c | 387.44$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 80c | 385.16$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…e836backed Yes | 14c | 371.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…59d0backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 24c | 356.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 67c | 354.03$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.