Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c9b08b52f828d6f04bee804414d0ce2cbfeb698e5c4809d2835eecb00a81fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $504,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $507,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $504,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4548…2be2backed No | 31c | 53,134$16,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,662.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…4f27backed Yes | 69c | 53,134$36,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,662.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…d980backed No | 22c | 44,476$9,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,691.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8719backed Yes | 78c | 44,476$34,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,691.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…edfcbacked Yes | 54c | 34,766$18,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,773.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…7388backed No | 46c | 34,766$15,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,773.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf329…d77cbacked No | 38c | 29,787$11,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,467.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…b3dabacked Yes | 62c | 29,787$18,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,467.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…ea00backed No | 42c | 26,712$11,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,492.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…a36dbacked Yes | 58c | 26,712$15,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,492.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 45c | 9,761$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,410.78 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e8…2bf5backed Yes | 20c | 8,485$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Yes | 51c | 8,039$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 49c | 6,712$3,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450.68 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 59c | 5,856$3,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 50c | 5,489$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 78c | 4,295$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 54c | 3,567$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.12 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…b1e4backed Yes | 14c | 2,605$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 72c | 2,601$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.58 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 60c | 2,495$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.71 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 54c | 2,301$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.07 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 62c | 2,228$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.73 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 58c | 1,987$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 36c | 1,791$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.06 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,780$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 47c | 1,719$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 76c | 1,533$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 15c | 1,524$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a6…13c2backed Yes | 69c | 1,440$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 45c | 1,352$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.11 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 45c | 1,335$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.34 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 43c | 1,267$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.33 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes | 60c | 1,180$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 1,169$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.38 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 1,054$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.01 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 70c | 1,005$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 41c | 998.27$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.3 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…b042backed No | 40c | 958.74$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…5724backed Yes | 12c | 864.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 54c | 834.54$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.21 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 821.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 62c | 805.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 767.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 76c | 620.27$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed No | 60c | 619.61$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 593.83$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 32c | 579.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 31c | 574.96$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.61 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed No | 21c | 558.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 524.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 47c | 504$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 52c | 490.49$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…4012backed Yes | 64c | 486.04$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 66c | 482.31$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 42c | 470.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 54c | 470$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 15c | 450$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 67c | 450$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 38c | 438.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.03 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 412.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 78c | 401.06$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 66c | 389$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 66c | 382.95$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 23c | 382.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 69c | 378.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 76c | 340$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 51c | 330.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 30c | 319.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…2b89backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 56c | 316.34$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.91 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 65c | 295.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.02 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 34c | 294.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8309…67a2backed Yes | 79c | 279$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…a5b7backed Yes | 57c | 272.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 47c | 265.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 38c | 264.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 36c | 250.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked No | 78c | 246.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 77c | 243$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed Yes | 64c | 237.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…9bf2backed No | 66c | 228.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 28c | 226.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 56c | 225.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 73c | 218.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 209.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…89e2backed Yes | 47c | 200.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…e286backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 40c | 197.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…3c05backed Yes | 62c | 194.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.