Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7ec060576054b277760c34bbe9f89f5a45faad9020de673f4cda81efae688c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $451,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $453,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fb…3561backed Yes | 36c | 63,107$22,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,718.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…6213backed No | 64c | 63,107$40,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,718.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…c895backed No | 56c | 41,218$23,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,135.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…ff77backed Yes | 44c | 41,218$18,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,135.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…ab60backed Yes | 66c | 36,515$24,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,099.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…8d7fbacked No | 34c | 36,515$12,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,099.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…66e5backed No | 66c | 36,219$23,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,314.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…7a01backed Yes | 34c | 36,219$12,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,314.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…d78ebacked Yes | 44c | 30,712$13,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,513.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c8…1b65backed No | 56c | 30,712$17,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,513.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 1,626$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.75 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,470$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 78c | 1,147$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.24 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 19c | 1,110$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,007$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 64c | 993.6$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…04cbbacked Yes | 4c | 889$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 36c | 820.92$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.96 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 65c | 812.02$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.09 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 67c | 750.23$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 35c | 691.73$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 73c | 659.56$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.93 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…1cb2backed Yes | 76c | 659.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 24c | 599.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 17c | 550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 535.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 47c | 498.26$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 33c | 491.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed No | 55c | 484.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978b…7e07backed No | 64c | 471.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 463.71$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 35c | 460.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 58c | 440.09$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 49c | 400$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 18c | 388.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 36c | 388$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 77c | 384.89$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 66c | 365.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 350.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 329.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 322.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…59d0backed Yes | 68c | 292.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…8ebcbacked No | 74c | 282.89$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 72c | 272$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 230$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 37c | 222$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 48c | 200.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 49c | 195.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked No | 52c | 182.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 42c | 182.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…ba7bbacked Yes | 7c | 178.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 29c | 172.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 169.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 61c | 163$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 51c | 157.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 65c | 153.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 153.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 63c | 147.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 68c | 147.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 36c | 144$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 66c | 142$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 138.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 58c | 138.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Yes | 38c | 131.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…2a08backed No | 59c | 130.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 43c | 126.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…3ad9backed Yes | 21c | 111.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 109.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 43c | 104$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked Yes | 59c | 102.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 77c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 99.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked No | 77c | 96.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…f631backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 38c | 75.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 16c | 70.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 65.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…9580backed No | 60c | 64.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 61.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…86a7backed No | 59c | 53.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 38c | 52.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…8dcebacked Yes | 39c | 51.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 34c | 48.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…cef8backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…1065backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.