Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5b2eb294c8dfe100bb33b28c6774f3c8fb52981ae5219bc09d23ae4d8b1df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bba…3174backed Yes | 65c | 54,745$35,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,584.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…e8bbbacked No | 35c | 54,745$19,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,584.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…ec8bbacked No | 31c | 51,014$15,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,199.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8719backed Yes | 69c | 51,014$35,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,199.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…f2d7backed No | 57c | 38,756$22,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,665.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…3830backed Yes | 43c | 38,756$16,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,665.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…c547backed Yes | 50c | 34,211$17,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,105.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8326…1cbdbacked No | 50c | 34,211$17,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,105.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 72c | 2,337$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 33c | 1,596$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.24 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 46c | 1,482$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.11 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,464$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 45c | 1,076$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.49 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 68c | 956.72$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.15 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 900.09$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.55 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 827.99$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 738.4$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.7 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 728.48$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.55 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 55c | 727.52$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.7 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 45c | 599.78$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.72 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 21c | 561.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 524.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 63c | 495.58$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 64c | 473.2$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.05 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 46c | 463.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.44 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 439.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 68c | 439.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 73c | 437.71$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 10c | 381$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 32c | 360.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 40c | 343.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed Yes | 65c | 339.82$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 32c | 313.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…f66abacked Yes | 69c | 301.49$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 33c | 300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…9e6dbacked No | 36c | 280.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 50c | 276.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 21c | 270.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 260.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Yes | 58c | 219.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 27c | 206.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked No | 39c | 202.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 54c | 199.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 40c | 196.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 23c | 165.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 62c | 162.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 71c | 156.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 43c | 150.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 50c | 123.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…f631backed Yes | 69c | 115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 52c | 106.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 77c | 101.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 50c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…82a3backed Yes | 68c | 95.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 55c | 94.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 23c | 86.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…55f9backed Yes | 46c | 79.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 49c | 77.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…b66cbacked No | 35c | 76.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 37cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e8…07c4backed Yes | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 46c | 72.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…41a7backed No | 59c | 67.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.7wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +159%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 58c | 64.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 69c | 63.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 60.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…b274backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…db65backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 33c | 47.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 59c | 46.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 39c | 43.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…dde6backed Yes | 28c | 42.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…ef66backed Yes | 39c | 41.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 80c | 39.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…8718backed No | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 59c | 36.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.