Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbce7c79bd564093ee87e434ca965e1da3317b3a143b66027794fc77c2c3fa742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $532,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $538,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x407c…6778backed No | 23c | 50,589$11,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,953.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…70ddbacked Yes | 77c | 50,589$38,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,953.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…9cd5backed Yes | 50c | 35,575$17,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,787.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b4…85f2backed No | 50c | 35,575$17,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,787.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1637…9042backed No | 41c | 27,875$11,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,446.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…3830backed Yes | 59c | 27,875$16,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,446.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…c818backed Yes | 54c | 25,341$13,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,684.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cf…711ebacked No | 46c | 25,341$11,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,684.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 48c | 18,258$8,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,564.97 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 43c | 17,628$7,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,024.34 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 50c | 16,518$8,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,181.68 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 13,778$8,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,147.8 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 53c | 9,000$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 73c | 8,167$5,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,960.98 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 48c | 7,204$3,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,727.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 26c | 5,823$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,314.71 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 57c | 5,029$2,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,877.27 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 33c | 4,777$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.07 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 58c | 4,756$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 38c | 3,148$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.59 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 58c | 3,123$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.06 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 44c | 2,923$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 22c | 2,910$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.34 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 57c | 2,888$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.77 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 31c | 2,675$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.53 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,621$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.37 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 60c | 2,611$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.68 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed No | 70c | 2,500$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 43c | 2,485$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 1,981$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 1,973$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.51 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 38c | 1,873$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.23 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 65c | 1,671$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.65 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 52c | 1,388$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.23 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,366$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes | 44c | 1,270$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes | 57c | 1,236$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 35c | 1,132$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.42 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed Yes | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 60c | 1,100$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 50c | 1,100$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.78 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 54c | 1,098$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…174cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,068$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,053$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 54c | 1,030$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked No | 24c | 1,013$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +175.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 25c | 1,009$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 36c | 1,008$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.64 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…701cbacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 63c | 999.12$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f823backed No | 43c | 985.3$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 26c | 960$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.33 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 61c | 932.6$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.79 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 21c | 919.02$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.78 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 913.3$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 68c | 881.74$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.59 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 38c | 871$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.01 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 52c | 866.65$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.65 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 18c | 848.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 65c | 814.62$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 811.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…c4e4backed Yes | 24c | 793.7$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 53c | 777.92$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.85 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 42c | 757.14$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.64 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 49c | 726.72$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 60c | 703.62$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 65c | 699.84$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.6 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 67c | 690.35$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed No | 71c | 686.77$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 59c | 643.02$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.28 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 53c | 616.58$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.83 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 606.22$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.79 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…dc43backed Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 63c | 590.08$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 46c | 587.97$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.91 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 14c | 573.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed No | 18c | 554.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 546.98$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 19c | 540.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 58c | 505$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 52c | 500$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 67c | 496.78$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 66c | 489.01$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…5761backed Yes | 56c | 479.98$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 58c | 475$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 464.94$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.62 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 54c | 461.72$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 60c | 451$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.58 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 38c | 450$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 68c | 433.72$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 43c | 421$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.62 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 49c | 408$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 47c | 400$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?this page
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Brazil before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?Yes won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No won
- Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.